**A major May 28, 2026 explosion during a New Glenn hot-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed key pad infrastructure, including the lightning tower and transporter-erector, halting flights after the April NG-3 mission.** Blue Origin’s CEO has targeted a return to flight by year-end using a new horizontal/vertical hybrid launch concept and preserved propellant systems, yet reconstruction remains ongoing with all future missions listed as TBD. The single-pad limitation, ambitious timeline relative to historical rebuild precedents, and lack of recent test milestones keep trader consensus firmly against a 2026 launch. Key near-term catalysts include pad certification updates or static-fire demonstrations that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui13% peluang
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Dec 31, 2026
13% peluang
BARU
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Dec 31, 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.**A major May 28, 2026 explosion during a New Glenn hot-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed key pad infrastructure, including the lightning tower and transporter-erector, halting flights after the April NG-3 mission.** Blue Origin’s CEO has targeted a return to flight by year-end using a new horizontal/vertical hybrid launch concept and preserved propellant systems, yet reconstruction remains ongoing with all future missions listed as TBD. The single-pad limitation, ambitious timeline relative to historical rebuild precedents, and lack of recent test milestones keep trader consensus firmly against a 2026 launch. Key near-term catalysts include pad certification updates or static-fire demonstrations that could shift implied probabilities.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,432Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.**A major May 28, 2026 explosion during a New Glenn hot-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed key pad infrastructure, including the lightning tower and transporter-erector, halting flights after the April NG-3 mission.** Blue Origin’s CEO has targeted a return to flight by year-end using a new horizontal/vertical hybrid launch concept and preserved propellant systems, yet reconstruction remains ongoing with all future missions listed as TBD. The single-pad limitation, ambitious timeline relative to historical rebuild precedents, and lack of recent test milestones keep trader consensus firmly against a 2026 launch. Key near-term catalysts include pad certification updates or static-fire demonstrations that could shift implied probabilities.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volume
$1,432Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**A major May 28, 2026 explosion during a New Glenn hot-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed key pad infrastructure, including the lightning tower and transporter-erector, halting flights after the April NG-3 mission.** Blue Origin’s CEO has targeted a return to flight by year-end using a new horizontal/vertical hybrid launch concept and preserved propellant systems, yet reconstruction remains ongoing with all future missions listed as TBD. The single-pad limitation, ambitious timeline relative to historical rebuild precedents, and lack of recent test milestones keep trader consensus firmly against a 2026 launch. Key near-term catalysts include pad certification updates or static-fire demonstrations that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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