The Bank of Japan's October policy decision reflects trader consensus around a measured normalization path following the June 2026 hike to a 1% policy rate. Persistent upside risks to inflation—driven by yen weakness, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and broadening price pass-through in goods and services—support expectations for gradual further tightening, yet recent July data and the July 30-31 meeting outcome showed limited acceleration in underlying CPI pressures sufficient to warrant an immediate move. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the next meeting, consistent with the BOJ's emphasis on monitoring summer-through-autumn price trends and labor-market conditions before adjusting the degree of accommodation. A modest 20% probability of a 25-basis-point increase captures the potential for faster pass-through or stronger wage outcomes to shift the timeline, while negligible odds on larger moves or cuts align with the central bank's forward guidance on continued but cautious rate adjustments amid stable growth forecasts. Upcoming September data releases and any inter-meeting communications will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the October meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,805 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$5,438 Vol.
1%
No change
$29,685 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$23,686 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$6,931 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan's October policy decision reflects trader consensus around a measured normalization path following the June 2026 hike to a 1% policy rate. Persistent upside risks to inflation—driven by yen weakness, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and broadening price pass-through in goods and services—support expectations for gradual further tightening, yet recent July data and the July 30-31 meeting outcome showed limited acceleration in underlying CPI pressures sufficient to warrant an immediate move. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the next meeting, consistent with the BOJ's emphasis on monitoring summer-through-autumn price trends and labor-market conditions before adjusting the degree of accommodation. A modest 20% probability of a 25-basis-point increase captures the potential for faster pass-through or stronger wage outcomes to shift the timeline, while negligible odds on larger moves or cuts align with the central bank's forward guidance on continued but cautious rate adjustments amid stable growth forecasts. Upcoming September data releases and any inter-meeting communications will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the October meeting.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$68,546Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan's October policy decision reflects trader consensus around a measured normalization path following the June 2026 hike to a 1% policy rate. Persistent upside risks to inflation—driven by yen weakness, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and broadening price pass-through in goods and services—support expectations for gradual further tightening, yet recent July data and the July 30-31 meeting outcome showed limited acceleration in underlying CPI pressures sufficient to warrant an immediate move. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the next meeting, consistent with the BOJ's emphasis on monitoring summer-through-autumn price trends and labor-market conditions before adjusting the degree of accommodation. A modest 20% probability of a 25-basis-point increase captures the potential for faster pass-through or stronger wage outcomes to shift the timeline, while negligible odds on larger moves or cuts align with the central bank's forward guidance on continued but cautious rate adjustments amid stable growth forecasts. Upcoming September data releases and any inter-meeting communications will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the October meeting.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$68,546Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan's October policy decision reflects trader consensus around a measured normalization path following the June 2026 hike to a 1% policy rate. Persistent upside risks to inflation—driven by yen weakness, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and broadening price pass-through in goods and services—support expectations for gradual further tightening, yet recent July data and the July 30-31 meeting outcome showed limited acceleration in underlying CPI pressures sufficient to warrant an immediate move. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the next meeting, consistent with the BOJ's emphasis on monitoring summer-through-autumn price trends and labor-market conditions before adjusting the degree of accommodation. A modest 20% probability of a 25-basis-point increase captures the potential for faster pass-through or stronger wage outcomes to shift the timeline, while negligible odds on larger moves or cuts align with the central bank's forward guidance on continued but cautious rate adjustments amid stable growth forecasts. Upcoming September data releases and any inter-meeting communications will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the October meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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