Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?
$6,864,803 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
July 31
$371,512 Vol.
5%
August 31
$343,961 Vol.
19%
September 30
$1,156,899 Vol.
26%
December 31
$102,995 Vol.
33%
$6,864,803 Vol.
July 31
$371,512 Vol.
5%
August 31
$343,961 Vol.
19%
September 30
$1,156,899 Vol.
26%
December 31
$102,995 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Jun 26 2026
Final data confirms Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open with transit calls above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Data published for the end of the analysis window confirmed that the 7-day moving average of transit calls remained above 10, leading to market resolution favoring no closure.
Jun 18 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls stabilize above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 14%1%
Data showed the 7-day moving average of transit calls stabilized around 14, well above the closure threshold, leading to a market price near 14%, reflecting low probability of closure.
Jun 18 2026
Transit calls at Bab el-Mandeb Strait reach lowest point but remain above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 14%10%
The 7-day moving average of transit calls dropped to a low of 11, close to the closure threshold, but did not fall to or below 10, keeping the market's closure probability low.
Jun 10 2026
Announcement of closure risks at Bab el-Mandeb Strait causes market uncertainty
September 30 jumps to 23%5%
News of potential closure risks led to a temporary increase in market uncertainty and price volatility, though actual transit data did not confirm closure.
Jun 10 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls rise, confirming no closure
September 30 jumps to 28%14%
Mid-June data indicated an increase in ship arrivals, reinforcing market confidence that the strait was not effectively closed, with prices rising from 14% to 28%.
Jun 9 2026
US maritime advisory warns of ongoing Houthi threats in Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea
September 30 rises to 28%1%
A US maritime advisory highlighted continued threats by the Houthis to commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding waters, underscoring persistent security risks that contribute to the strait's effective closure and market uncertainty.
Jun 8 2026
Iran and allies declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israeli ships
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Iran and its allies, including the Houthis, declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait completely closed to Israeli shipping in solidarity with Lebanon and Iran, signaling a significant escalation in maritime blockade efforts affecting a key global trade route.
Jun 8 2026
Houthis renew naval blockade on Israel, close Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli shipping
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a renewed naval blockade targeting Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and declared closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli vessels, intensifying the maritime security crisis and threatening a critical global shipping route.
Jun 5 2026
Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating conflict
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Israel did not halt strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, raising the risk of a dual chokepoint crisis alongside the Strait of Hormuz and further disrupting global oil supplies.
Jun 2 2026
Iran signals expansion of maritime blockade to Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported Tehran and its regional allies considering actions to affect the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a major disruption in global trade and energy supplies.
Jun 1 2026
Iran halts talks with US, vows to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 plunges to 21%29%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran and its allies resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, signaling an escalation in maritime disruption threats. This announcement heightened fears of a broader blockade affecting global trade routes.
May 24 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip near closure threshold but recover quickly
September 30 drops to 16%5%
Data showed a brief dip in transit calls close to the threshold of 10, causing market concern, but subsequent recovery prevented a closure resolution.
May 23 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip but stay above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 13%7%
Data showed a temporary dip in ship arrivals to near the threshold but still above 10, causing a brief price trough at 13% before rebounding. This indicated continued, though reduced, maritime activity through the strait.
May 20 2026
Regional tensions cause temporary transit fluctuations but no closure at Bab el-Mandeb
September 30 dips to 21%3%
Despite spikes in regional conflict, transit data showed fluctuations but did not fall below the closure threshold, leading to market price volatility but no confirmation of closure.
May 15 2026
Ethiopia and Eritrea agree to ceasefire in border conflict
September 30 plunges to 14%36%
After months of fighting along their shared border, Ethiopia and Eritrea reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing regional tensions and allowing maritime traffic to resume normal levels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
May 6 2026
Reports show Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls remain above closure threshold
September 30 plunges to 24%26%
Initial data releases indicated that the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was above 10, reducing market expectations of an effective closure. This led to a sharp drop in the market price from 50% to 24%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Jun 26 2026
Final data confirms Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open with transit calls above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Data published for the end of the analysis window confirmed that the 7-day moving average of transit calls remained above 10, leading to market resolution favoring no closure.
Jun 18 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls stabilize above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 14%1%
Data showed the 7-day moving average of transit calls stabilized around 14, well above the closure threshold, leading to a market price near 14%, reflecting low probability of closure.
Jun 18 2026
Transit calls at Bab el-Mandeb Strait reach lowest point but remain above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 14%10%
The 7-day moving average of transit calls dropped to a low of 11, close to the closure threshold, but did not fall to or below 10, keeping the market's closure probability low.
Jun 10 2026
Announcement of closure risks at Bab el-Mandeb Strait causes market uncertainty
September 30 jumps to 23%5%
News of potential closure risks led to a temporary increase in market uncertainty and price volatility, though actual transit data did not confirm closure.
Jun 10 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls rise, confirming no closure
September 30 jumps to 28%14%
Mid-June data indicated an increase in ship arrivals, reinforcing market confidence that the strait was not effectively closed, with prices rising from 14% to 28%.
Jun 9 2026
US maritime advisory warns of ongoing Houthi threats in Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea
September 30 rises to 28%1%
A US maritime advisory highlighted continued threats by the Houthis to commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding waters, underscoring persistent security risks that contribute to the strait's effective closure and market uncertainty.
Jun 8 2026
Iran and allies declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israeli ships
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Iran and its allies, including the Houthis, declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait completely closed to Israeli shipping in solidarity with Lebanon and Iran, signaling a significant escalation in maritime blockade efforts affecting a key global trade route.
Jun 8 2026
Houthis renew naval blockade on Israel, close Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli shipping
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a renewed naval blockade targeting Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and declared closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli vessels, intensifying the maritime security crisis and threatening a critical global shipping route.
Jun 5 2026
Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating conflict
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Israel did not halt strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, raising the risk of a dual chokepoint crisis alongside the Strait of Hormuz and further disrupting global oil supplies.
Jun 2 2026
Iran signals expansion of maritime blockade to Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported Tehran and its regional allies considering actions to affect the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a major disruption in global trade and energy supplies.
Jun 1 2026
Iran halts talks with US, vows to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 plunges to 21%29%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran and its allies resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, signaling an escalation in maritime disruption threats. This announcement heightened fears of a broader blockade affecting global trade routes.
May 24 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip near closure threshold but recover quickly
September 30 drops to 16%5%
Data showed a brief dip in transit calls close to the threshold of 10, causing market concern, but subsequent recovery prevented a closure resolution.
May 23 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip but stay above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 13%7%
Data showed a temporary dip in ship arrivals to near the threshold but still above 10, causing a brief price trough at 13% before rebounding. This indicated continued, though reduced, maritime activity through the strait.
May 20 2026
Regional tensions cause temporary transit fluctuations but no closure at Bab el-Mandeb
September 30 dips to 21%3%
Despite spikes in regional conflict, transit data showed fluctuations but did not fall below the closure threshold, leading to market price volatility but no confirmation of closure.
May 15 2026
Ethiopia and Eritrea agree to ceasefire in border conflict
September 30 plunges to 14%36%
After months of fighting along their shared border, Ethiopia and Eritrea reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing regional tensions and allowing maritime traffic to resume normal levels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
May 6 2026
Reports show Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls remain above closure threshold
September 30 plunges to 24%26%
Initial data releases indicated that the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was above 10, reducing market expectations of an effective closure. This led to a sharp drop in the market price from 50% to 24%.
"Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 10 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "December 31" di 33%, diikuti oleh "September 30" di 26%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 33¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 33% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?" telah menghasilkan $6.9 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 16, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?," jelajahi 10 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?" adalah "December 31" di 33%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 33% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "September 30" di 26%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $6.9 million diperdagangkan pada "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 33¢ untuk "December 31" di pasar "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 33% bahwa "December 31" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 33¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 67¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Tanggal berakhir pasar "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?" telah lewat, tetapi pasar belum diselesaikan secara resmi. Tanggal berakhir menunjukkan kapan event yang mendasarinya diperkirakan terjadi atau dapat diketahui. Ini bukan saat trading berhenti. Pasar tetap terbuka untuk trading sampai hasilnya diselesaikan secara resmi melalui proses resolusi. Kamu masih bisa membeli, menjual, atau menutup posisimu saat pasar menunggu resolusi. Periksa pelacak status resolusi dan bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini untuk pembaruan tentang jadwal resolusi.
Pasar "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 179 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Selat Bab el - Mandeb secara efektif ditutup oleh...?." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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