Carlos Alcaraz’s right-wrist tenosynovitis, sustained in April during the Barcelona Open, remains the dominant factor shaping the 61% implied probability he will compete at the 2026 U.S. Open. The defending champion has not played a competitive match since that event, missing the French Open, Wimbledon, and the Cincinnati Masters 1000 after withdrawing from the latter due to ongoing inflammation. Recent developments show gradual progress, including a return to full-intensity practice in mid-August and placement on the official entry list, though experts have cautioned against rushing into best-of-five sets without further tune-up matches. The Winston-Salem Open, beginning August 23, offers a final opportunity for match play before the hard-court major starts August 30. Trader consensus reflects both the extended layoff and positive fitness updates without confirmation of full clearance.