**Pramila Jayapal and Nirav Sheth advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to contest the general election for the 7th congressional district on November 3.** The district’s strong Democratic base and Jayapal’s long incumbency have produced consistent large margins in prior cycles, which traders appear to reflect in the spread across Democrat margin buckets clustered near 42-43.5%. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of competitive polling or notable campaign developments since the primary have kept the implied probabilities stable without sharp shifts. National political trends, voter turnout patterns in King County, or late-cycle events could still alter the final margin range.