Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows Labor’s primary vote holding in the mid-20s while the Coalition and One Nation trade leads or sit close behind on roughly similar shares, with the Greens and others trailing further back. This positioning underpins the strong trader consensus around Labor finishing second, as preferences and two-party estimates consistently place the major left party ahead of minor parties but behind the leading right-of-centre option. Leadership changes in late July and early August, including Ben Carroll’s elevation as Labor premier and a new One Nation leader, produced only modest short-term shifts in subsequent surveys without altering the broader pattern of a fragmented right vote. The low implied probabilities for the Coalition, One Nation and Greens as second reflect expectations that minor-party support will consolidate or that the primary contest will leave Labor in the runner-up spot once preferences are distributed. No major late-August events have disrupted this alignment ahead of the final campaign period.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाविक्टोरिया संसदीय चुनाव: दूसरा स्थान
विक्टोरिया संसदीय चुनाव: दूसरा स्थान
Labor 78%
Liberal–National 14.5%
One Nation 5.2%
Greens <1%
नया
नया
28 नव, 2026
Labor
78%
Liberal–National
14%
One Nation
5%
Greens
1%
Labor 78%
Liberal–National 14.5%
One Nation 5.2%
Greens <1%
नया
नया
28 नव, 2026
Labor
$948 वॉल्यूम
78%
Liberal–National
$273 वॉल्यूम
14%
One Nation
$410 वॉल्यूम
5%
Greens
$208 वॉल्यूम
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows Labor’s primary vote holding in the mid-20s while the Coalition and One Nation trade leads or sit close behind on roughly similar shares, with the Greens and others trailing further back. This positioning underpins the strong trader consensus around Labor finishing second, as preferences and two-party estimates consistently place the major left party ahead of minor parties but behind the leading right-of-centre option. Leadership changes in late July and early August, including Ben Carroll’s elevation as Labor premier and a new One Nation leader, produced only modest short-term shifts in subsequent surveys without altering the broader pattern of a fragmented right vote. The low implied probabilities for the Coalition, One Nation and Greens as second reflect expectations that minor-party support will consolidate or that the primary contest will leave Labor in the runner-up spot once preferences are distributed. No major late-August events have disrupted this alignment ahead of the final campaign period.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,839समाप्ति तिथि
28 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows Labor’s primary vote holding in the mid-20s while the Coalition and One Nation trade leads or sit close behind on roughly similar shares, with the Greens and others trailing further back. This positioning underpins the strong trader consensus around Labor finishing second, as preferences and two-party estimates consistently place the major left party ahead of minor parties but behind the leading right-of-centre option. Leadership changes in late July and early August, including Ben Carroll’s elevation as Labor premier and a new One Nation leader, produced only modest short-term shifts in subsequent surveys without altering the broader pattern of a fragmented right vote. The low implied probabilities for the Coalition, One Nation and Greens as second reflect expectations that minor-party support will consolidate or that the primary contest will leave Labor in the runner-up spot once preferences are distributed. No major late-August events have disrupted this alignment ahead of the final campaign period.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
वॉल्यूम
$1,839समाप्ति तिथि
28 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows Labor’s primary vote holding in the mid-20s while the Coalition and One Nation trade leads or sit close behind on roughly similar shares, with the Greens and others trailing further back. This positioning underpins the strong trader consensus around Labor finishing second, as preferences and two-party estimates consistently place the major left party ahead of minor parties but behind the leading right-of-centre option. Leadership changes in late July and early August, including Ben Carroll’s elevation as Labor premier and a new One Nation leader, produced only modest short-term shifts in subsequent surveys without altering the broader pattern of a fragmented right vote. The low implied probabilities for the Coalition, One Nation and Greens as second reflect expectations that minor-party support will consolidate or that the primary contest will leave Labor in the runner-up spot once preferences are distributed. No major late-August events have disrupted this alignment ahead of the final campaign period.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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