Persistent deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations over territorial control, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms has kept any viable peace framework out of reach through mid-2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges and brief pauses, while both sides maintain maximalist positions and active operations. Ukrainian proposals for unconditional ceasefires or frontline freezes remain unacceptable to Russia, and no draft agreement has advanced far enough to trigger the parliamentary vote or national referendum required for formal approval. Traders price the "No" outcome at 95.5% because these structural barriers have shown little movement despite external pressure. A late-2026 breakthrough yielding a mutually acceptable deal and rapid referendum remains possible if battlefield conditions shift sharply or major concessions emerge before year-end.