Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions have shifted trader focus toward a potential RBI repo rate hike at the October 5-7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, supporting the 45.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase. SBI Research's September 11 report highlighted broadening CPI pressures, with risks of inflation climbing toward 6.5% in October-November if pass-through from energy costs intensifies, prompting calls for 25 basis point hikes in both October and December to preempt entrenched price gains. The current 5.25% repo rate, held steady since December 2025 with a neutral stance, faces data-dependent scrutiny ahead of the next CPI release, while the 35% odds of no change reflect RBI's prior emphasis on resilient growth and contained core inflation around 3.9%. Market-implied odds for rate cuts remain subdued below 20% combined, consistent with external shocks outweighing near-term easing signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया25 बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 46%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 32%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की कमी 11%
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 11%
नया
नया
6 अक्टू, 2026
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
11%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
46%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
32%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की कमी
11%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की कटौती
4%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 46%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 32%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की कमी 11%
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 11%
नया
नया
6 अक्टू, 2026
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
$231 वॉल्यूम
11%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
$507 वॉल्यूम
46%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$996 वॉल्यूम
32%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की कमी
$46 वॉल्यूम
11%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की कटौती
$41 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions have shifted trader focus toward a potential RBI repo rate hike at the October 5-7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, supporting the 45.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase. SBI Research's September 11 report highlighted broadening CPI pressures, with risks of inflation climbing toward 6.5% in October-November if pass-through from energy costs intensifies, prompting calls for 25 basis point hikes in both October and December to preempt entrenched price gains. The current 5.25% repo rate, held steady since December 2025 with a neutral stance, faces data-dependent scrutiny ahead of the next CPI release, while the 35% odds of no change reflect RBI's prior emphasis on resilient growth and contained core inflation around 3.9%. Market-implied odds for rate cuts remain subdued below 20% combined, consistent with external shocks outweighing near-term easing signals.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,821समाप्ति तिथि
7 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions have shifted trader focus toward a potential RBI repo rate hike at the October 5-7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, supporting the 45.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase. SBI Research's September 11 report highlighted broadening CPI pressures, with risks of inflation climbing toward 6.5% in October-November if pass-through from energy costs intensifies, prompting calls for 25 basis point hikes in both October and December to preempt entrenched price gains. The current 5.25% repo rate, held steady since December 2025 with a neutral stance, faces data-dependent scrutiny ahead of the next CPI release, while the 35% odds of no change reflect RBI's prior emphasis on resilient growth and contained core inflation around 3.9%. Market-implied odds for rate cuts remain subdued below 20% combined, consistent with external shocks outweighing near-term easing signals.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$1,821समाप्ति तिथि
7 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions have shifted trader focus toward a potential RBI repo rate hike at the October 5-7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, supporting the 45.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase. SBI Research's September 11 report highlighted broadening CPI pressures, with risks of inflation climbing toward 6.5% in October-November if pass-through from energy costs intensifies, prompting calls for 25 basis point hikes in both October and December to preempt entrenched price gains. The current 5.25% repo rate, held steady since December 2025 with a neutral stance, faces data-dependent scrutiny ahead of the next CPI release, while the 35% odds of no change reflect RBI's prior emphasis on resilient growth and contained core inflation around 3.9%. Market-implied odds for rate cuts remain subdued below 20% combined, consistent with external shocks outweighing near-term easing signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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