Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, driven by West Asia geopolitical tensions including the US-Iran conflict, have elevated near-term inflation risks for India, with SBI Research projecting potential CPI readings near or above 6.5% in October-November if pass-through accelerates and prices reach $105–123. This follows July CPI at 4.45% and an expected August print around 4.8–4.9%, prompting the research house to advocate a 25-basis-point repo rate hike at the October 5–7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting alongside another in December. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has noted balanced risks to growth and inflation, highlighting government measures that have cushioned the oil shock so far, while the central bank has maintained the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance through August. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change at 49.5%, with a 24% chance of a 25-basis-point increase reflecting trader caution ahead of fresh data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 57%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 29%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की कटौती 11.2%
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 5%
नया
नया
6 अक्टू, 2026
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
5%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
29%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
57%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की कमी
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की कटौती
11%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 57%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 29%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की कटौती 11.2%
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी 5%
नया
नया
6 अक्टू, 2026
50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
$298 वॉल्यूम
5%
25 बेसिस पॉइंट्स की बढ़ोतरी
$1,891 वॉल्यूम
29%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$3,368 वॉल्यूम
57%
25 बेसिस प्वाइंट की कमी
$116 वॉल्यूम
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट्स की कटौती
$132 वॉल्यूम
11%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, driven by West Asia geopolitical tensions including the US-Iran conflict, have elevated near-term inflation risks for India, with SBI Research projecting potential CPI readings near or above 6.5% in October-November if pass-through accelerates and prices reach $105–123. This follows July CPI at 4.45% and an expected August print around 4.8–4.9%, prompting the research house to advocate a 25-basis-point repo rate hike at the October 5–7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting alongside another in December. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has noted balanced risks to growth and inflation, highlighting government measures that have cushioned the oil shock so far, while the central bank has maintained the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance through August. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change at 49.5%, with a 24% chance of a 25-basis-point increase reflecting trader caution ahead of fresh data.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$5,806समाप्ति तिथि
7 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, driven by West Asia geopolitical tensions including the US-Iran conflict, have elevated near-term inflation risks for India, with SBI Research projecting potential CPI readings near or above 6.5% in October-November if pass-through accelerates and prices reach $105–123. This follows July CPI at 4.45% and an expected August print around 4.8–4.9%, prompting the research house to advocate a 25-basis-point repo rate hike at the October 5–7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting alongside another in December. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has noted balanced risks to growth and inflation, highlighting government measures that have cushioned the oil shock so far, while the central bank has maintained the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance through August. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change at 49.5%, with a 24% chance of a 25-basis-point increase reflecting trader caution ahead of fresh data.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$5,806समाप्ति तिथि
7 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 9, 2026, 5:06 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, driven by West Asia geopolitical tensions including the US-Iran conflict, have elevated near-term inflation risks for India, with SBI Research projecting potential CPI readings near or above 6.5% in October-November if pass-through accelerates and prices reach $105–123. This follows July CPI at 4.45% and an expected August print around 4.8–4.9%, prompting the research house to advocate a 25-basis-point repo rate hike at the October 5–7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting alongside another in December. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has noted balanced risks to growth and inflation, highlighting government measures that have cushioned the oil shock so far, while the central bank has maintained the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance through August. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change at 49.5%, with a 24% chance of a 25-basis-point increase reflecting trader caution ahead of fresh data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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