Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a strong position in New York's 18th congressional district, which encompasses parts of the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County. Ryan won reelection in 2024 by a double-digit margin and advanced easily through the June 2026 Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Likely Democratic based on the district's modest partisan lean and the incumbent's established local support. Republican nominee Jackie Auringer emerged from her party's uncontested primary, yet faces structural challenges in a race where national midterm dynamics have not shifted the balance enough to close the gap. Trader pricing at 90% for Democrats aligns with these factors, including historical incumbent retention rates and the absence of major late-breaking developments since the primaries.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNY -18 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
NY -18 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$34,605 वॉल्यूम
$34,605 वॉल्यूम
4 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
90%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
10%
$34,605 वॉल्यूम
$34,605 वॉल्यूम
4 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$32,582 वॉल्यूम
90%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$2,023 वॉल्यूम
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a strong position in New York's 18th congressional district, which encompasses parts of the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County. Ryan won reelection in 2024 by a double-digit margin and advanced easily through the June 2026 Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Likely Democratic based on the district's modest partisan lean and the incumbent's established local support. Republican nominee Jackie Auringer emerged from her party's uncontested primary, yet faces structural challenges in a race where national midterm dynamics have not shifted the balance enough to close the gap. Trader pricing at 90% for Democrats aligns with these factors, including historical incumbent retention rates and the absence of major late-breaking developments since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$34,605समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a strong position in New York's 18th congressional district, which encompasses parts of the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County. Ryan won reelection in 2024 by a double-digit margin and advanced easily through the June 2026 Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Likely Democratic based on the district's modest partisan lean and the incumbent's established local support. Republican nominee Jackie Auringer emerged from her party's uncontested primary, yet faces structural challenges in a race where national midterm dynamics have not shifted the balance enough to close the gap. Trader pricing at 90% for Democrats aligns with these factors, including historical incumbent retention rates and the absence of major late-breaking developments since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$34,605समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a strong position in New York's 18th congressional district, which encompasses parts of the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County. Ryan won reelection in 2024 by a double-digit margin and advanced easily through the June 2026 Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Likely Democratic based on the district's modest partisan lean and the incumbent's established local support. Republican nominee Jackie Auringer emerged from her party's uncontested primary, yet faces structural challenges in a race where national midterm dynamics have not shifted the balance enough to close the gap. Trader pricing at 90% for Democrats aligns with these factors, including historical incumbent retention rates and the absence of major late-breaking developments since the primaries.
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