Andy Burnham’s July 2026 takeover as prime minister, following Keir Starmer’s resignation amid local election losses and Labour Party pressure, has stabilized trader expectations for limited further turnover by the end of 2027. Burnham now leads a government with a substantial Commons majority, and the next general election is not required until 2029, reducing immediate risks of a snap poll or leadership contest. No major new catalysts—such as sharp economic shocks, widespread by-election defeats, or fresh internal rebellions—have surfaced since the transition, supporting the 85.5% implied probability on a total of two prime ministers. The modest 13.5% chance assigned to three reflects lingering uncertainty over policy delivery on growth, immigration, and public services, while the slim odds on four or more underscore the high barriers to rapid successive changes in the current parliamentary arithmetic.