Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat centered on Honolulu and Oahu, where incumbent Ed Case secured the party nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary after defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole. Case's prior general-election margins above 70% and the district's consistent partisan voting patterns underpin the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic victory. The Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter registration that limit competitiveness. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal by the Democratic nominee, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge that shifts turnout in this safely blue district.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHI -01 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
HI -01 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$28,336 वॉल्यूम
$28,336 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$28,336 वॉल्यूम
$28,336 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,677 वॉल्यूम
95%
Republican Party
$13,658 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat centered on Honolulu and Oahu, where incumbent Ed Case secured the party nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary after defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole. Case's prior general-election margins above 70% and the district's consistent partisan voting patterns underpin the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic victory. The Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter registration that limit competitiveness. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal by the Democratic nominee, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge that shifts turnout in this safely blue district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$28,336समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat centered on Honolulu and Oahu, where incumbent Ed Case secured the party nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary after defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole. Case's prior general-election margins above 70% and the district's consistent partisan voting patterns underpin the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic victory. The Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter registration that limit competitiveness. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal by the Democratic nominee, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge that shifts turnout in this safely blue district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$28,336समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strongly Democratic seat centered on Honolulu and Oahu, where incumbent Ed Case secured the party nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary after defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole. Case's prior general-election margins above 70% and the district's consistent partisan voting patterns underpin the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic victory. The Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter registration that limit competitiveness. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal by the Democratic nominee, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge that shifts turnout in this safely blue district.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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