**No broad reduction in federal long-term capital gains rates has occurred by September 2026, supporting the 88% implied probability on “No.”** Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, Congress made many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions permanent and added targeted relief such as expanded Opportunity Zone benefits and startup investment incentives, but left the top statutory rate at 20% (plus the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax) unchanged. Proposals to index gains for inflation, raise the primary-residence exclusion, or enact deeper rate cuts have circulated among Republicans ahead of the midterms, yet remain stalled in committee or face internal divisions over revenue and deficit impacts. With only months left in 2026 and legislative attention focused on other priorities, traders see limited time and political bandwidth for a headline rate cut before year-end. Narrow carve-outs, such as the introduced No Capital Gains Tax on Family Farms Act, have not advanced to enactment.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
14% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
14% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No broad reduction in federal long-term capital gains rates has occurred by September 2026, supporting the 88% implied probability on “No.”**
Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, Congress made many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions permanent and added targeted relief such as expanded Opportunity Zone benefits and startup investment incentives, but left the top statutory rate at 20% (plus the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax) unchanged. Proposals to index gains for inflation, raise the primary-residence exclusion, or enact deeper rate cuts have circulated among Republicans ahead of the midterms, yet remain stalled in committee or face internal divisions over revenue and deficit impacts. With only months left in 2026 and legislative attention focused on other priorities, traders see limited time and political bandwidth for a headline rate cut before year-end. Narrow carve-outs, such as the introduced No Capital Gains Tax on Family Farms Act, have not advanced to enactment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$296समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No broad reduction in federal long-term capital gains rates has occurred by September 2026, supporting the 88% implied probability on “No.”**
Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, Congress made many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions permanent and added targeted relief such as expanded Opportunity Zone benefits and startup investment incentives, but left the top statutory rate at 20% (plus the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax) unchanged. Proposals to index gains for inflation, raise the primary-residence exclusion, or enact deeper rate cuts have circulated among Republicans ahead of the midterms, yet remain stalled in committee or face internal divisions over revenue and deficit impacts. With only months left in 2026 and legislative attention focused on other priorities, traders see limited time and political bandwidth for a headline rate cut before year-end. Narrow carve-outs, such as the introduced No Capital Gains Tax on Family Farms Act, have not advanced to enactment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$296समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**No broad reduction in federal long-term capital gains rates has occurred by September 2026, supporting the 88% implied probability on “No.”** Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, Congress made many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions permanent and added targeted relief such as expanded Opportunity Zone benefits and startup investment incentives, but left the top statutory rate at 20% (plus the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax) unchanged. Proposals to index gains for inflation, raise the primary-residence exclusion, or enact deeper rate cuts have circulated among Republicans ahead of the midterms, yet remain stalled in committee or face internal divisions over revenue and deficit impacts. With only months left in 2026 and legislative attention focused on other priorities, traders see limited time and political bandwidth for a headline rate cut before year-end. Narrow carve-outs, such as the introduced No Capital Gains Tax on Family Farms Act, have not advanced to enactment.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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