Recent polls in Sachsen-Anhalt consistently place the BSW at or just below the 5% parliamentary threshold ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election, with August surveys from INSA and Pollytix showing 4–5% support amid AfD dominance near 42% and stable shares for the Linke, CDU, and SPD. The party’s internal state-level conflicts, which led to dual lead candidates without prior elected experience, and limited momentum in eastern Germany have constrained its ability to consolidate voters from the Linke or other smaller parties. Traders’ 74% implied probability on “under” aligns with this polling trend and the structural challenges smaller parties face meeting the 5% hurdle in the final campaign phase, though late shifts in turnout or vote splitting could still alter the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOver
26% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 sept. 2026
Over
26% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 sept. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls in Sachsen-Anhalt consistently place the BSW at or just below the 5% parliamentary threshold ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election, with August surveys from INSA and Pollytix showing 4–5% support amid AfD dominance near 42% and stable shares for the Linke, CDU, and SPD. The party’s internal state-level conflicts, which led to dual lead candidates without prior elected experience, and limited momentum in eastern Germany have constrained its ability to consolidate voters from the Linke or other smaller parties. Traders’ 74% implied probability on “under” aligns with this polling trend and the structural challenges smaller parties face meeting the 5% hurdle in the final campaign phase, though late shifts in turnout or vote splitting could still alter the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$204Date de fin
6 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls in Sachsen-Anhalt consistently place the BSW at or just below the 5% parliamentary threshold ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election, with August surveys from INSA and Pollytix showing 4–5% support amid AfD dominance near 42% and stable shares for the Linke, CDU, and SPD. The party’s internal state-level conflicts, which led to dual lead candidates without prior elected experience, and limited momentum in eastern Germany have constrained its ability to consolidate voters from the Linke or other smaller parties. Traders’ 74% implied probability on “under” aligns with this polling trend and the structural challenges smaller parties face meeting the 5% hurdle in the final campaign phase, though late shifts in turnout or vote splitting could still alter the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$204Date de fin
6 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls in Sachsen-Anhalt consistently place the BSW at or just below the 5% parliamentary threshold ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election, with August surveys from INSA and Pollytix showing 4–5% support amid AfD dominance near 42% and stable shares for the Linke, CDU, and SPD. The party’s internal state-level conflicts, which led to dual lead candidates without prior elected experience, and limited momentum in eastern Germany have constrained its ability to consolidate voters from the Linke or other smaller parties. Traders’ 74% implied probability on “under” aligns with this polling trend and the structural challenges smaller parties face meeting the 5% hurdle in the final campaign phase, though late shifts in turnout or vote splitting could still alter the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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