Trader consensus pricing a 92.5% probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026 reflects the organization's operational continuity, with core members including Saudi Arabia sustaining coordinated production adjustments through June 2026 meetings despite the UAE's April exit. Recent OPEC+ statements reaffirm commitments to market stability amid geopolitical pressures such as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, anchoring implied odds near historical base rates for cartel persistence. Forward-looking catalysts include the July output target review and ongoing ministerial sessions, where any further producer departures could introduce volatility but would still require unanimous structural changes unlikely before year-end. Market-implied odds embed real-capital incentives for accurate assessment of institutional resilience over short-term fractures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,584 Vol.
$29,584 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$29,584 Vol.
$29,584 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus pricing a 92.5% probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026 reflects the organization's operational continuity, with core members including Saudi Arabia sustaining coordinated production adjustments through June 2026 meetings despite the UAE's April exit. Recent OPEC+ statements reaffirm commitments to market stability amid geopolitical pressures such as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, anchoring implied odds near historical base rates for cartel persistence. Forward-looking catalysts include the July output target review and ongoing ministerial sessions, where any further producer departures could introduce volatility but would still require unanimous structural changes unlikely before year-end. Market-implied odds embed real-capital incentives for accurate assessment of institutional resilience over short-term fractures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,584Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus pricing a 92.5% probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026 reflects the organization's operational continuity, with core members including Saudi Arabia sustaining coordinated production adjustments through June 2026 meetings despite the UAE's April exit. Recent OPEC+ statements reaffirm commitments to market stability amid geopolitical pressures such as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, anchoring implied odds near historical base rates for cartel persistence. Forward-looking catalysts include the July output target review and ongoing ministerial sessions, where any further producer departures could introduce volatility but would still require unanimous structural changes unlikely before year-end. Market-implied odds embed real-capital incentives for accurate assessment of institutional resilience over short-term fractures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,584Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus pricing a 92.5% probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026 reflects the organization's operational continuity, with core members including Saudi Arabia sustaining coordinated production adjustments through June 2026 meetings despite the UAE's April exit. Recent OPEC+ statements reaffirm commitments to market stability amid geopolitical pressures such as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, anchoring implied odds near historical base rates for cartel persistence. Forward-looking catalysts include the July output target review and ongoing ministerial sessions, where any further producer departures could introduce volatility but would still require unanimous structural changes unlikely before year-end. Market-implied odds embed real-capital incentives for accurate assessment of institutional resilience over short-term fractures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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