**Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar facing conviction before 2027 because Canada's criminal courts move slowly on sexual assault cases amid persistent backlogs.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation; two earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the first resolved via a peace bond. His January 2026 court appearance marked the start of proceedings, but full trials and resolutions routinely span well beyond a single calendar year. The August 2026 Toronto Life profile highlighted additional allegations without indicating any plea or verdict, reinforcing the view that procedural delays and defense preparations make a 2026 conviction unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine disclosure and preliminary hearings, with resolution criteria tied strictly to an official judgment by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJustin Aguiar condamné pour agression sexuelle avant 2027 ?
Justin Aguiar condamné pour agression sexuelle avant 2027 ?
Oui
31% chance
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
31% chance
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar facing conviction before 2027 because Canada's criminal courts move slowly on sexual assault cases amid persistent backlogs.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation; two earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the first resolved via a peace bond. His January 2026 court appearance marked the start of proceedings, but full trials and resolutions routinely span well beyond a single calendar year. The August 2026 Toronto Life profile highlighted additional allegations without indicating any plea or verdict, reinforcing the view that procedural delays and defense preparations make a 2026 conviction unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine disclosure and preliminary hearings, with resolution criteria tied strictly to an official judgment by year-end.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$52,562Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar facing conviction before 2027 because Canada's criminal courts move slowly on sexual assault cases amid persistent backlogs.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation; two earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the first resolved via a peace bond. His January 2026 court appearance marked the start of proceedings, but full trials and resolutions routinely span well beyond a single calendar year. The August 2026 Toronto Life profile highlighted additional allegations without indicating any plea or verdict, reinforcing the view that procedural delays and defense preparations make a 2026 conviction unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine disclosure and preliminary hearings, with resolution criteria tied strictly to an official judgment by year-end.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,562Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar facing conviction before 2027 because Canada's criminal courts move slowly on sexual assault cases amid persistent backlogs.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation; two earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the first resolved via a peace bond. His January 2026 court appearance marked the start of proceedings, but full trials and resolutions routinely span well beyond a single calendar year. The August 2026 Toronto Life profile highlighted additional allegations without indicating any plea or verdict, reinforcing the view that procedural delays and defense preparations make a 2026 conviction unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine disclosure and preliminary hearings, with resolution criteria tied strictly to an official judgment by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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