Congress enacted a continuing resolution in late August and early September 2026 that extends federal funding at current levels through December 11, averting any appropriations lapse on October 1. The measure cleared the Senate by a wide margin and passed the House 370-48 with bipartisan support before President Trump signed it, reflecting lawmakers' shared priority of avoiding disruptions ahead of the midterms. This statutory extension directly underpins trader consensus at 99.2% against a shutdown by the deadline. The next funding cliff arrives in December, when full-year appropriations negotiations resume.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
<1% chance
$15,557 Vol.
$15,557 Vol.
1 oct. 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$15,557 Vol.
$15,557 Vol.
1 oct. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted a continuing resolution in late August and early September 2026 that extends federal funding at current levels through December 11, averting any appropriations lapse on October 1. The measure cleared the Senate by a wide margin and passed the House 370-48 with bipartisan support before President Trump signed it, reflecting lawmakers' shared priority of avoiding disruptions ahead of the midterms. This statutory extension directly underpins trader consensus at 99.2% against a shutdown by the deadline. The next funding cliff arrives in December, when full-year appropriations negotiations resume.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$15,557Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted a continuing resolution in late August and early September 2026 that extends federal funding at current levels through December 11, averting any appropriations lapse on October 1. The measure cleared the Senate by a wide margin and passed the House 370-48 with bipartisan support before President Trump signed it, reflecting lawmakers' shared priority of avoiding disruptions ahead of the midterms. This statutory extension directly underpins trader consensus at 99.2% against a shutdown by the deadline. The next funding cliff arrives in December, when full-year appropriations negotiations resume.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,557Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Congress enacted a continuing resolution in late August and early September 2026 that extends federal funding at current levels through December 11, averting any appropriations lapse on October 1. The measure cleared the Senate by a wide margin and passed the House 370-48 with bipartisan support before President Trump signed it, reflecting lawmakers' shared priority of avoiding disruptions ahead of the midterms. This statutory extension directly underpins trader consensus at 99.2% against a shutdown by the deadline. The next funding cliff arrives in December, when full-year appropriations negotiations resume.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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