France enters Group I as the clear frontrunner with its proven World Cup pedigree, including the 2018 title and 2022 runner-up finish, bolstered by an elite squad depth that positions it for group leadership in the expanded 48-team format. Norway’s 24.5% implied probability reflects its first appearance since 1998, driven by Erling Haaland’s scoring prowess and recent qualification momentum, though limited recent international exposure tempers expectations. Senegal’s 11.5% share stems from consistent African Cup of Nations contention and 2022 Round of 16 experience, creating a competitive matchup against the favorites. Iraq’s minimal odds align with its return after a 40-year absence via intercontinental playoffs, facing the steepest challenges in a group featuring three stronger European and African sides.