Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

$99K volume, ends Nov 1, 2026

October 9	57%
October 11	57%
October 15	54%
October 12	54%
October 7	50%
October 10	50%
October 16	50%
October 18	50%
October 20	50%
October 25	50%
October 26	50%
October 29	50%
October 30	50%
October 19	49%
October 21	49%
October 22	49%
October 23	49%
October 24	49%
October 27	48%
October 31	48%
October 17	48%
October 28	48%
October 14	46%
October 13	45%
October 8	34%
October 3	<1%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying mili