Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
| November 6 | 98% |
| November 13 | 92% |
| November 14 | 88% |
| November 12 | 84% |
| November 16 | 84% |
| November 17 | 84% |
| November 21 | 84% |
| November 18 | 83% |
| November 19 | 83% |
| November 20 | 83% |
| November 22 | 83% |
| November 15 | 82% |
| November 24 | 82% |
| November 26 | 82% |
| November 28 | 81% |
| November 23 | 80% |
| November 25 | 80% |
| November 27 | 80% |
| November 29 | 80% |
| November 30 | 80% |
| November 8 | 62% |
| November 10 | 14% |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be