Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

$146K volume, ends Nov 1, 2026

October 6	94%
October 5	93%
October 12	90%
October 8	88%
October 7	88%
October 9	86%
October 13	86%
October 14	86%
October 15	86%
October 11	84%
October 10	84%
October 19	70%
October 17	70%
October 23	56%
October 20	54%
October 28	52%
October 29	52%
October 21	52%
October 18	51%
October 22	51%
October 31	50%
October 25	50%
October 16	50%
October 30	50%
October 26	49%
October 27	49%
October 24	48%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be