Which cities face tornado risk on October 4?
| Birmingham, AL | 48% |
| St. Louis, MO | 47% |
| Des Moines, IA | 47% |
| Tampa, FL | 34% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 1% |
| Nashville, TN | 1% |
| Oklahoma City, OK | 1% |
| Memphis, TN | 1% |
| Louisville, KY | 1% |
| Atlanta, GA | 1% |
| Kansas City, MO | 1% |
| Omaha, NE | 1% |
| Columbus, OH | 1% |
| Charlotte, NC | 1% |
| Denver, CO | 1% |
| San Antonio, TX | 1% |
| Fort Worth, TX | 1% |
| Chicago, IL | 1% |
| Dallas, TX | 1% |
| Austin, TX | 1% |
| Little Rock, AR | 1% |
| New Orleans, LA | <1% |
| Wichita, KS | <1% |
| Houston, TX | <1% |
| Minneapolis, MN | <1% |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. That scheduled update is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions published after it will not be considered. If the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has not been published by the time the market closes, this market will re