Incumbent Republican Brian Babin, first elected in 2014, faces Democrat Rhonda Hart in the November 2026 general election for Texas's 36th congressional district. The seat's strong Republican lean stems from its Southeast Texas voter base, consistent GOP margins above 65 percent in recent cycles, and 2025 mid-decade redistricting that further strengthened the partisan tilt to roughly R+12. Babin secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March primary, reflecting limited intra-party opposition. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Low-probability shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or unusually high Democratic turnout amid a broader national swing, though such factors have not materialized in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-36 House Election Winner
TX-36 House Election Winner
$28,055 Vol.
$28,055 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$28,055 Vol.
$28,055 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$8,235 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$19,820 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Babin, first elected in 2014, faces Democrat Rhonda Hart in the November 2026 general election for Texas's 36th congressional district. The seat's strong Republican lean stems from its Southeast Texas voter base, consistent GOP margins above 65 percent in recent cycles, and 2025 mid-decade redistricting that further strengthened the partisan tilt to roughly R+12. Babin secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March primary, reflecting limited intra-party opposition. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Low-probability shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or unusually high Democratic turnout amid a broader national swing, though such factors have not materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,055End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Babin, first elected in 2014, faces Democrat Rhonda Hart in the November 2026 general election for Texas's 36th congressional district. The seat's strong Republican lean stems from its Southeast Texas voter base, consistent GOP margins above 65 percent in recent cycles, and 2025 mid-decade redistricting that further strengthened the partisan tilt to roughly R+12. Babin secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March primary, reflecting limited intra-party opposition. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Low-probability shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or unusually high Democratic turnout amid a broader national swing, though such factors have not materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,055End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brian Babin, first elected in 2014, faces Democrat Rhonda Hart in the November 2026 general election for Texas's 36th congressional district. The seat's strong Republican lean stems from its Southeast Texas voter base, consistent GOP margins above 65 percent in recent cycles, and 2025 mid-decade redistricting that further strengthened the partisan tilt to roughly R+12. Babin secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March primary, reflecting limited intra-party opposition. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Low-probability shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or unusually high Democratic turnout amid a broader national swing, though such factors have not materialized in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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