Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?
| November 4 | 90% |
| November 5 | 80% |
| November 6 | 70% |
| November 3 | 64% |
| November 10 | 55% |
| November 13 | 51% |
| November 7 | 50% |
| November 19 | 50% |
| November 21 | 50% |
| November 9 | 50% |
| November 23 | 50% |
| November 25 | 50% |
| November 26 | 50% |
| November 28 | 50% |
| November 29 | 50% |
| November 17 | 50% |
| November 24 | 50% |
| November 11 | 48% |
| November 15 | 48% |
| November 16 | 48% |
| November 20 | 48% |
| November 22 | 48% |
| November 14 | 48% |
| November 18 | 48% |
| November 8 | 48% |
| November 30 | 47% |
| November 27 | 46% |
| November 12 | 42% |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia or the armed forces of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, including forces formally under the Presidential Leadership Council, whether or not operating as part of the Saudi-led coalition. A strike will qualify if it is attributed to any of these parties, regardless of which of them conducted it. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or other proxy forces will not qualify. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artiller