Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

$288K volume, ends Nov 1, 2026

October 5	98%
October 4	95%
October 6	82%
October 25	82%
October 18	74%
October 3	70%
October 7	69%
October 2	67%
October 30	63%
October 9	62%
October 13	62%
October 10	56%
October 12	55%
October 24	55%
October 28	52%
October 29	52%
October 14	52%
October 19	50%
October 22	50%
October 15	50%
October 23	47%
October 31	46%
October 17	44%
October 21	44%
October 16	44%
October 26	43%
October 11	42%
October 27	39%
October 20	33%
October 1	28%
October 8	24%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact do