The open seat created by Angie Craig’s Senate bid has drawn a competitive Democratic primary on August 11 featuring endorsed candidate Matt Little alongside Matt Klein and Kaela Berg, while Republicans have coalesced around state Senator Eric Pratt. MN-02’s D+3 partisan voting index and “Likely Democratic” ratings from Cook Political Report, DDHQ, and Inside Elections anchor trader consensus around a Democratic nominee prevailing in November. Recent head-to-head polling shows the Democratic contenders maintaining leads, though some Republican-sponsored surveys indicate narrower margins. The district’s suburban and exurban composition has produced consistent Democratic general-election wins in recent cycles, limiting Republican upside absent a major shift in turnout or national conditions. Late developments such as primary results or unexpected endorsements could modestly adjust probabilities, but the structural Democratic edge has held firm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-02 House Election Winner
MN-02 House Election Winner
$18,717 Vol.
$18,717 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
$18,717 Vol.
$18,717 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,405 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$10,312 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by Angie Craig’s Senate bid has drawn a competitive Democratic primary on August 11 featuring endorsed candidate Matt Little alongside Matt Klein and Kaela Berg, while Republicans have coalesced around state Senator Eric Pratt. MN-02’s D+3 partisan voting index and “Likely Democratic” ratings from Cook Political Report, DDHQ, and Inside Elections anchor trader consensus around a Democratic nominee prevailing in November. Recent head-to-head polling shows the Democratic contenders maintaining leads, though some Republican-sponsored surveys indicate narrower margins. The district’s suburban and exurban composition has produced consistent Democratic general-election wins in recent cycles, limiting Republican upside absent a major shift in turnout or national conditions. Late developments such as primary results or unexpected endorsements could modestly adjust probabilities, but the structural Democratic edge has held firm.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$18,717End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by Angie Craig’s Senate bid has drawn a competitive Democratic primary on August 11 featuring endorsed candidate Matt Little alongside Matt Klein and Kaela Berg, while Republicans have coalesced around state Senator Eric Pratt. MN-02’s D+3 partisan voting index and “Likely Democratic” ratings from Cook Political Report, DDHQ, and Inside Elections anchor trader consensus around a Democratic nominee prevailing in November. Recent head-to-head polling shows the Democratic contenders maintaining leads, though some Republican-sponsored surveys indicate narrower margins. The district’s suburban and exurban composition has produced consistent Democratic general-election wins in recent cycles, limiting Republican upside absent a major shift in turnout or national conditions. Late developments such as primary results or unexpected endorsements could modestly adjust probabilities, but the structural Democratic edge has held firm.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,717End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat created by Angie Craig’s Senate bid has drawn a competitive Democratic primary on August 11 featuring endorsed candidate Matt Little alongside Matt Klein and Kaela Berg, while Republicans have coalesced around state Senator Eric Pratt. MN-02’s D+3 partisan voting index and “Likely Democratic” ratings from Cook Political Report, DDHQ, and Inside Elections anchor trader consensus around a Democratic nominee prevailing in November. Recent head-to-head polling shows the Democratic contenders maintaining leads, though some Republican-sponsored surveys indicate narrower margins. The district’s suburban and exurban composition has produced consistent Democratic general-election wins in recent cycles, limiting Republican upside absent a major shift in turnout or national conditions. Late developments such as primary results or unexpected endorsements could modestly adjust probabilities, but the structural Democratic edge has held firm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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