Internal factional tensions within Iran's post-war leadership have shaped trader views on coup attempt probabilities. Hardline parliamentarians have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining the largely absent Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and pursuing negotiations with the United States after the February 2026 strikes that killed Ali Khamenei. These claims emerged prominently in July amid funeral ceremonies and truce discussions, reflecting deep divisions between revolutionary hardliners and wartime decision-makers. No coordinated military or security force action to seize power has materialized, consistent with the regime's demonstrated continuity despite economic pressures and prior protests. Ongoing elite power struggles and the new leader's limited public role remain key variables that could influence future developments within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,126,239 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
20%
$2,126,239 Vol.
December 31
$85,013 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional tensions within Iran's post-war leadership have shaped trader views on coup attempt probabilities. Hardline parliamentarians have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining the largely absent Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and pursuing negotiations with the United States after the February 2026 strikes that killed Ali Khamenei. These claims emerged prominently in July amid funeral ceremonies and truce discussions, reflecting deep divisions between revolutionary hardliners and wartime decision-makers. No coordinated military or security force action to seize power has materialized, consistent with the regime's demonstrated continuity despite economic pressures and prior protests. Ongoing elite power struggles and the new leader's limited public role remain key variables that could influence future developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,126,239End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional tensions within Iran's post-war leadership have shaped trader views on coup attempt probabilities. Hardline parliamentarians have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining the largely absent Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and pursuing negotiations with the United States after the February 2026 strikes that killed Ali Khamenei. These claims emerged prominently in July amid funeral ceremonies and truce discussions, reflecting deep divisions between revolutionary hardliners and wartime decision-makers. No coordinated military or security force action to seize power has materialized, consistent with the regime's demonstrated continuity despite economic pressures and prior protests. Ongoing elite power struggles and the new leader's limited public role remain key variables that could influence future developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,126,239End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal factional tensions within Iran's post-war leadership have shaped trader views on coup attempt probabilities. Hardline parliamentarians have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining the largely absent Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and pursuing negotiations with the United States after the February 2026 strikes that killed Ali Khamenei. These claims emerged prominently in July amid funeral ceremonies and truce discussions, reflecting deep divisions between revolutionary hardliners and wartime decision-makers. No coordinated military or security force action to seize power has materialized, consistent with the regime's demonstrated continuity despite economic pressures and prior protests. Ongoing elite power struggles and the new leader's limited public role remain key variables that could influence future developments within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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