Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

$62K volume, ends Nov 1, 2026

October 10	>99%
October 8	97%
October 5	96%
October 12	70%
October 13	64%
October 11	61%
October 15	59%
October 14	57%
October 18	56%
October 16	56%
October 19	52%
October 4	51%
October 23	50%
October 24	50%
October 31	48%
October 21	48%
October 20	47%
October 28	46%
October 26	46%
October 30	46%
October 22	45%
October 29	44%
October 27	44%
October 2	38%
October 17	36%
October 9	16%
October 25	10%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are