Gemini Carbon released on...?
| November 11 | 18% |
| November 13 | 14% |
| November 14 | 10% |
| No release by November 30 | 10% |
| November 12 | 10% |
| November 17 | 9% |
| November 22 | 8% |
| November 8 | 7% |
| November 25 | 6% |
| November 10 | 6% |
| November 6 | 5% |
| November 24 | 5% |
| November 5 | 5% |
| November 1 | 5% |
| November 26 | 5% |
| November 27 | 4% |
| On or prior to October 31 | 4% |
| November 23 | 4% |
| November 15 | 4% |
| November 18 | 4% |
| November 20 | 4% |
| November 30 | 4% |
| November 29 | 3% |
| November 7 | 3% |
| November 16 | 3% |
| November 4 | 3% |
| November 2 | 2% |
| November 19 | 2% |
| November 3 | 2% |
| November 21 | 2% |
| November 9 | 2% |
| November 28 | 1% |
Rules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google. A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private acce