Gemini Argon released on...?
| October 13 | 21% |
| No release by October 31 | 19% |
| October 23 | 8% |
| October 27 | 6% |
| October 14 | 6% |
| October 30 | 5% |
| October 9 | 5% |
| October 31 | 4% |
| October 20 | 4% |
| October 12 | 4% |
| October 15 | 4% |
| October 29 | 4% |
| October 18 | 4% |
| October 11 | 3% |
| October 19 | 2% |
| October 10 | 2% |
| October 16 | 2% |
| October 26 | 2% |
| October 28 | 2% |
| October 25 | 2% |
| October 24 | 1% |
| October 17 | 1% |
| October 21 | 1% |
| October 22 | <1% |
| On or prior to October 8 | <1% |
Rules
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.