Aaron Rodgers' one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers, signed in May 2026 and worth up to $25 million, combined with his repeated public confirmation that the upcoming season will be his last, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against retirement before the 2026 campaign. The four-time MVP, now 42, has emphasized "this is it" and "zero debate" during organized team activities and training camp, reuniting with coach Mike McCarthy under stable roster conditions. At this stage, with official injury reports clear and no indications of a change in plans, the implied probability reflects broad agreement on his participation. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited to unforeseen health developments or an abrupt reversal before Week 1.