Iran's confirmed qualification via AFC pathways and FIFA president Gianni Infantino's explicit statements affirming participation have anchored trader consensus around no replacement. Visa appeals for delegation members, ongoing FIFA efforts to restore fan ticket access blocked by sanctions, and the federation's approved base camp shift to Mexico have further reduced disruption risks ahead of group stage matches in the United States. Geopolitical tensions and earlier speculation about alternatives like Italy produced brief market fluctuations but yielded to official rejections and regulatory emphasis on continuity. A late Iranian withdrawal or unresolved entry blockade remains the primary low-probability path to a substitute, though current developments show no such trajectory.