Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA indicate that the global surface temperature anomaly for May 2026 aligns closely with the 1.10–1.14°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the cooling influence of a weak La Niña transition and typical seasonal patterns following peak 2024–2025 warmth. Model consensus and preliminary ERA5 analyses support this narrow band as the most probable outcome given current sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions. Scenarios that could realistically shift the result include revisions in final dataset processing, stronger-than-expected El Niño development altering late-month readings, or adjustments in pre-industrial baseline estimates used by different agencies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 96.6%
<1.10ºC 2.3%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$193,177 Vol.
$193,177 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 96.6%
<1.10ºC 2.3%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$193,177 Vol.
$193,177 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,264 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,435 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,651 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,026 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,425 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,428 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA indicate that the global surface temperature anomaly for May 2026 aligns closely with the 1.10–1.14°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the cooling influence of a weak La Niña transition and typical seasonal patterns following peak 2024–2025 warmth. Model consensus and preliminary ERA5 analyses support this narrow band as the most probable outcome given current sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions. Scenarios that could realistically shift the result include revisions in final dataset processing, stronger-than-expected El Niño development altering late-month readings, or adjustments in pre-industrial baseline estimates used by different agencies.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$193,177Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA indicate that the global surface temperature anomaly for May 2026 aligns closely with the 1.10–1.14°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the cooling influence of a weak La Niña transition and typical seasonal patterns following peak 2024–2025 warmth. Model consensus and preliminary ERA5 analyses support this narrow band as the most probable outcome given current sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions. Scenarios that could realistically shift the result include revisions in final dataset processing, stronger-than-expected El Niño development altering late-month readings, or adjustments in pre-industrial baseline estimates used by different agencies.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$193,177Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA indicate that the global surface temperature anomaly for May 2026 aligns closely with the 1.10–1.14°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the cooling influence of a weak La Niña transition and typical seasonal patterns following peak 2024–2025 warmth. Model consensus and preliminary ERA5 analyses support this narrow band as the most probable outcome given current sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions. Scenarios that could realistically shift the result include revisions in final dataset processing, stronger-than-expected El Niño development altering late-month readings, or adjustments in pre-industrial baseline estimates used by different agencies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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