The high trader-implied probability of cancellation for the 2026 United Left primary stems primarily from the Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote to hold a separate closed primary, ending its involvement after internal splits over coalition strategy. La France Insoumise and Place Publique never joined the process launched in November 2025 by figures including Marine Tondelier, François Ruffin, Clémentine Autain, and Olivier Faure, while the French Communist Party also pursued an independent path. These fractures, compounded by limited remaining participation from Les Écologistes, Debout!, L'Après, and the Breton Democratic Union, have stalled the effort ahead of the scheduled October 11 vote. Late shifts such as candidate withdrawals could still allow the contest to proceed among the narrowed field, though official announcements confirming non-participation by key organizers would lock in resolution to "Canceled."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCancelado 93.5%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$212,616 Vol.
$212,616 Vol.
10 oct 2026
Cancelado
94%
Marine Tondelier
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
<1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Cancelado 93.5%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$212,616 Vol.
$212,616 Vol.
10 oct 2026
Cancelado
$76,903 Vol.
94%
Marine Tondelier
$49,788 Vol.
1%
François Ruffin
$31,112 Vol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,369 Vol.
1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
$4,216 Vol.
<1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The high trader-implied probability of cancellation for the 2026 United Left primary stems primarily from the Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote to hold a separate closed primary, ending its involvement after internal splits over coalition strategy. La France Insoumise and Place Publique never joined the process launched in November 2025 by figures including Marine Tondelier, François Ruffin, Clémentine Autain, and Olivier Faure, while the French Communist Party also pursued an independent path. These fractures, compounded by limited remaining participation from Les Écologistes, Debout!, L'Après, and the Breton Democratic Union, have stalled the effort ahead of the scheduled October 11 vote. Late shifts such as candidate withdrawals could still allow the contest to proceed among the narrowed field, though official announcements confirming non-participation by key organizers would lock in resolution to "Canceled."
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$212,616Fecha de finalización
11 oct 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The high trader-implied probability of cancellation for the 2026 United Left primary stems primarily from the Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote to hold a separate closed primary, ending its involvement after internal splits over coalition strategy. La France Insoumise and Place Publique never joined the process launched in November 2025 by figures including Marine Tondelier, François Ruffin, Clémentine Autain, and Olivier Faure, while the French Communist Party also pursued an independent path. These fractures, compounded by limited remaining participation from Les Écologistes, Debout!, L'Après, and the Breton Democratic Union, have stalled the effort ahead of the scheduled October 11 vote. Late shifts such as candidate withdrawals could still allow the contest to proceed among the narrowed field, though official announcements confirming non-participation by key organizers would lock in resolution to "Canceled."
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$212,616Fecha de finalización
11 oct 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The high trader-implied probability of cancellation for the 2026 United Left primary stems primarily from the Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote to hold a separate closed primary, ending its involvement after internal splits over coalition strategy. La France Insoumise and Place Publique never joined the process launched in November 2025 by figures including Marine Tondelier, François Ruffin, Clémentine Autain, and Olivier Faure, while the French Communist Party also pursued an independent path. These fractures, compounded by limited remaining participation from Les Écologistes, Debout!, L'Après, and the Breton Democratic Union, have stalled the effort ahead of the scheduled October 11 vote. Late shifts such as candidate withdrawals could still allow the contest to proceed among the narrowed field, though official announcements confirming non-participation by key organizers would lock in resolution to "Canceled."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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