Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target through the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. Recent holds at the March and April meetings, alongside the March Summary of Economic Projections showing only one median cut for the full year, reinforce this market-implied path. A resilient labor market with May unemployment at 4.3% and moderate payroll gains further supports the pause consensus by limiting urgency for easing. The June 10 CPI release and any revisions to labor data represent key near-term swing factors that could introduce modest probability of a later cut if inflation moderates sharply.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 99.3%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte <1%
Otro <1%
$1,602,499 Vol.
$1,602,499 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
99%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
1%
Otro
<1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 99.3%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte <1%
Otro <1%
$1,602,499 Vol.
$1,602,499 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$255,800 Vol.
99%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$259,949 Vol.
1%
Otro
$341,413 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target through the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. Recent holds at the March and April meetings, alongside the March Summary of Economic Projections showing only one median cut for the full year, reinforce this market-implied path. A resilient labor market with May unemployment at 4.3% and moderate payroll gains further supports the pause consensus by limiting urgency for easing. The June 10 CPI release and any revisions to labor data represent key near-term swing factors that could introduce modest probability of a later cut if inflation moderates sharply.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,602,499Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target through the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. Recent holds at the March and April meetings, alongside the March Summary of Economic Projections showing only one median cut for the full year, reinforce this market-implied path. A resilient labor market with May unemployment at 4.3% and moderate payroll gains further supports the pause consensus by limiting urgency for easing. The June 10 CPI release and any revisions to labor data represent key near-term swing factors that could introduce modest probability of a later cut if inflation moderates sharply.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,602,499Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate target through the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. Recent holds at the March and April meetings, alongside the March Summary of Economic Projections showing only one median cut for the full year, reinforce this market-implied path. A resilient labor market with May unemployment at 4.3% and moderate payroll gains further supports the pause consensus by limiting urgency for easing. The June 10 CPI release and any revisions to labor data represent key near-term swing factors that could introduce modest probability of a later cut if inflation moderates sharply.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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