The closely balanced 50.5% market-implied probability of no Bank of England rate hike in 2026 stems primarily from the MPC’s 6-3 hold at 3.75% in July, amid cooling underlying disinflation offset by energy-price upside risks. CPI inflation stood at 2.9% in July 2026 after 2.6% in June, with the Bank projecting a peak near 3.2% in Q4 due to Middle East-driven volatility, though core measures remain subdued around 2.6%. Traders weigh the risk of second-round effects against a still-loose labor market and prior rate cuts totaling 150 basis points since late 2024. The September 17 MPC meeting, August CPI release, and any escalation or de-escalation in energy markets represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$50,071 Vol.
$50,071 Vol.
Sí
$50,071 Vol.
$50,071 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The closely balanced 50.5% market-implied probability of no Bank of England rate hike in 2026 stems primarily from the MPC’s 6-3 hold at 3.75% in July, amid cooling underlying disinflation offset by energy-price upside risks. CPI inflation stood at 2.9% in July 2026 after 2.6% in June, with the Bank projecting a peak near 3.2% in Q4 due to Middle East-driven volatility, though core measures remain subdued around 2.6%. Traders weigh the risk of second-round effects against a still-loose labor market and prior rate cuts totaling 150 basis points since late 2024. The September 17 MPC meeting, August CPI release, and any escalation or de-escalation in energy markets represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado



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