**Russian attempts to infiltrate Ternuvate, a village in Zaporizhzhia Oblast roughly 10–15 km behind the line of contact, have so far been limited to short-lived sabotage operations that Ukrainian forces rapidly neutralized.** In late January 2026, Russian reconnaissance groups used poor weather to enter the settlement, plant flags, and record drone footage for propaganda claims of capture. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces and local units conducted clearing operations within hours, eliminating or capturing the infiltrators and restoring full control, as confirmed by multiple official statements and on-the-ground reporting through February and March 2026. Traders price low probabilities for renewed entry or capture by later 2026 deadlines because repeated Russian claims have not translated into sustained presence, while Ukrainian defensive sweeps and monitoring continue amid active fighting in the broader Orikhiv and Huliaipole sectors. Resolution depends on ISW mapping showing any territorial shading under Russian control by the specified cutoff, with prior Ukrainian counteractions serving as the main precedent.