Rebeca Grynspan leads trader sentiment in the UN Secretary-General race at 45% implied probability after topping the Security Council’s first informal straw poll in late July with the most “encourage” votes among nominees. Her position as UNCTAD head and former Costa Rican vice president positions her as a continuity candidate with broad Latin American backing and minimal objections so far. Rafael Grossi’s 29.5% share reflects his strong record as IAEA director general and experience mediating conflicts like those in Ukraine and Iran, though he trails in early council soundings. Achim Steiner’s comparable 29.4% pricing highlights his UNDP leadership and development expertise amid ongoing debates over regional rotation and the push for the first female secretary-general. With the process entering its final straw-poll phase before an expected autumn conclusion, recent candidate dialogues and veto-power dynamics continue to shape these crowd-sourced probabilities.