The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, decision to grant certiorari in consolidated challenges to AR-15-style rifle bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the central driver of trader sentiment. The 6-3 conservative majority has steadily expanded Second Amendment protections since the 2022 Bruen decision, and four justices previously signaled that such bans likely violate the “common use” test from Heller. A new national firearms survey estimating roughly 60 million AR-15-type rifles in civilian hands has been cited in briefs to strengthen that argument. Oral arguments are scheduled for the fall 2026 term, with a ruling expected by mid-2027. While the Court’s recent gun-rights trajectory supports a meaningful chance of invalidation, the outcome still hinges on Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett, leaving the market near even odds that reflect both the bloc’s lean and residual uncertainty.