Strong trader consensus behind the 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026 stems from the organization's continued operational momentum, including the June 7, 2026, OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting where key producers reaffirmed production adjustments and market-stability commitments. Despite the UAE's May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+, remaining members led by Saudi Arabia have sustained coordinated output decisions amid Iran-related supply disruptions and revised 2026 demand forecasts. This institutional resilience, backed by ongoing technical and ministerial processes, outweighs isolated membership shifts seen in prior years. Realistic challenges could include escalated geopolitical fractures or coordinated exits by additional Gulf producers, though current capital-weighted sentiment views full dissolution as structurally improbable before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,584 Vol.
$29,584 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
$29,584 Vol.
$29,584 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strong trader consensus behind the 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026 stems from the organization's continued operational momentum, including the June 7, 2026, OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting where key producers reaffirmed production adjustments and market-stability commitments. Despite the UAE's May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+, remaining members led by Saudi Arabia have sustained coordinated output decisions amid Iran-related supply disruptions and revised 2026 demand forecasts. This institutional resilience, backed by ongoing technical and ministerial processes, outweighs isolated membership shifts seen in prior years. Realistic challenges could include escalated geopolitical fractures or coordinated exits by additional Gulf producers, though current capital-weighted sentiment views full dissolution as structurally improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$29,584Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strong trader consensus behind the 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026 stems from the organization's continued operational momentum, including the June 7, 2026, OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting where key producers reaffirmed production adjustments and market-stability commitments. Despite the UAE's May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+, remaining members led by Saudi Arabia have sustained coordinated output decisions amid Iran-related supply disruptions and revised 2026 demand forecasts. This institutional resilience, backed by ongoing technical and ministerial processes, outweighs isolated membership shifts seen in prior years. Realistic challenges could include escalated geopolitical fractures or coordinated exits by additional Gulf producers, though current capital-weighted sentiment views full dissolution as structurally improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$29,584Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong trader consensus behind the 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026 stems from the organization's continued operational momentum, including the June 7, 2026, OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting where key producers reaffirmed production adjustments and market-stability commitments. Despite the UAE's May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+, remaining members led by Saudi Arabia have sustained coordinated output decisions amid Iran-related supply disruptions and revised 2026 demand forecasts. This institutional resilience, backed by ongoing technical and ministerial processes, outweighs isolated membership shifts seen in prior years. Realistic challenges could include escalated geopolitical fractures or coordinated exits by additional Gulf producers, though current capital-weighted sentiment views full dissolution as structurally improbable before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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