Netanyahu has publicly confirmed his intention to lead Likud into Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election, with candidate lists due in September and no verified indications of withdrawal. Recent polling places his right-wing bloc at 48–53 seats, short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, while opposition parties led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar have narrowed or reversed the gap in head-to-head preferences. Prolonged public fatigue over the security situation following the October 2023 attacks, disputes within the coalition over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and Gaza policy, and persistent corruption proceedings continue to pressure his position. Traders monitor coalition defections, primary outcomes within Likud, and any late shifts in voter turnout or alliance negotiations that could alter the viability of his candidacy before the election.