Traders assign an 78% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, reflecting the view that any near-term adjustment will likely occur at the September 18 policy review amid ongoing inflation pressures. Recent hawkish signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda and board members, citing upside risks to underlying CPI from a weak yen and energy prices, have reinforced expectations for a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% next week, with the market fully pricing that move. The July decision to hold rates at 1.00% after June's increase, combined with data-dependent guidance and moderating growth risks following the U.S.-Iran deal, supports a measured pace of normalization toward a neutral rate near 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and labor market releases that could shift the October odds if they alter the inflation trajectory or yen dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNo change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
29. Okt. 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
29. Okt. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,805 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$5,438 Vol.
<1%
No change
$29,685 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$23,686 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$6,931 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an 78% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, reflecting the view that any near-term adjustment will likely occur at the September 18 policy review amid ongoing inflation pressures. Recent hawkish signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda and board members, citing upside risks to underlying CPI from a weak yen and energy prices, have reinforced expectations for a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% next week, with the market fully pricing that move. The July decision to hold rates at 1.00% after June's increase, combined with data-dependent guidance and moderating growth risks following the U.S.-Iran deal, supports a measured pace of normalization toward a neutral rate near 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and labor market releases that could shift the October odds if they alter the inflation trajectory or yen dynamics.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$68,546Enddatum
30. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an 78% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, reflecting the view that any near-term adjustment will likely occur at the September 18 policy review amid ongoing inflation pressures. Recent hawkish signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda and board members, citing upside risks to underlying CPI from a weak yen and energy prices, have reinforced expectations for a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% next week, with the market fully pricing that move. The July decision to hold rates at 1.00% after June's increase, combined with data-dependent guidance and moderating growth risks following the U.S.-Iran deal, supports a measured pace of normalization toward a neutral rate near 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and labor market releases that could shift the October odds if they alter the inflation trajectory or yen dynamics.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$68,546Enddatum
30. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an 78% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, reflecting the view that any near-term adjustment will likely occur at the September 18 policy review amid ongoing inflation pressures. Recent hawkish signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda and board members, citing upside risks to underlying CPI from a weak yen and energy prices, have reinforced expectations for a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% next week, with the market fully pricing that move. The July decision to hold rates at 1.00% after June's increase, combined with data-dependent guidance and moderating growth risks following the U.S.-Iran deal, supports a measured pace of normalization toward a neutral rate near 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and labor market releases that could shift the October odds if they alter the inflation trajectory or yen dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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