Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?
$6,878,279 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
31. Juli
$377,931 Vol.
5%
31. August
$347,367 Vol.
18%
30. September
$1,160,163 Vol.
23%
31. Dezember
$103,001 Vol.
33%
$6,878,279 Vol.
31. Juli
$377,931 Vol.
5%
31. August
$347,367 Vol.
18%
30. September
$1,160,163 Vol.
23%
31. Dezember
$103,001 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Jul 21 2026
Prediction markets surge on Bab el-Mandeb closure fears amid new blockade
September 30 jumps to 23%10%
On July 21, 2026, prediction markets reflected a surge in odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure following the Houthi naval blockade declaration, as traders assessed the risk to Saudi oil exports and global energy markets, pushing prices for closure outcomes higher.
Jul 21 2026
Houthis blockade raises fears over Bab el-Mandeb trade route security
August 31 jumps to 18%7%
Following the blockade declaration, on July 21, 2026, concerns intensified about the security of navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with increased insurance premiums and shipping reroutes. Saudi-led coalition vowed to protect commercial vessels, but the blockade's impact on trade and oil flows remained significant.
Jul 21 2026
Bab el-Mandeb blockade threatens global oil and trade routes
September 30 rises to 23%4%
On July 21, 2026, reports confirmed the Houthi blockade's potential to widen the Iran war and disrupt global oil supplies and international trade, emphasizing the strait's vital role in connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Arabia and its importance for Saudi oil exports.
Jul 21 2026
Houthi blockade announcement triggers market concerns over Bab el-Mandeb closure
December 31 drops to 33%12%
Following the Houthi declaration of a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping, markets reacted with increased probabilities of Bab el-Mandeb closure, reflecting fears of significant disruption to global trade and energy supplies through this strategic chokepoint.
Jul 20 2026
Houthis declare maritime blockade on Saudi shipping at Bab el-Mandeb Strait
July 31 drops to 5%7%
On July 20, 2026, Yemen's Houthis formally declared a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively closing the strait to Saudi-linked vessels. This blockade threatened to disrupt global oil exports and trade, causing a sharp increase in market concern and price volatility.
Jul 20 2026
US intensifies strikes on Iran amid rising Houthi threats in Bab el-Mandeb region
August 31 jumps to 18%6%
The US conducted multiple strikes on Iranian command centers and missile capabilities, aiming to degrade Iran's ability to threaten maritime traffic, while Houthis prepared attacks near Bab el-Mandeb, increasing regional tensions and market uncertainty.
Jul 20 2026
Houthis declare maritime blockade of Saudi shipping at Bab el-Mandeb Strait
July 31 dips to 5%4%
On July 20, the Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively closing the strait to Saudi shipping and escalating the regional conflict by threatening a key global trade chokepoint.
Jul 17 2026
Iran urges Houthis to prepare for Bab el-Mandeb disruption if US targets energy infrastructure
August 31 rises to 12%1%
Iran reportedly instructed its Houthi allies to prepare to disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Red Sea if the US attacks Iran's power grid or energy infrastructure, raising fears of expanded conflict and increased risk to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait's security.
Jul 16 2026
Russian FM Lavrov warns Bab el-Mandeb closure would harm global oil market
September 30 jumps to 19%6%
On July 16, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly stated that a potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would severely harm international trade and the global oil market, underscoring the strait's strategic importance and increasing geopolitical risk awareness.
Jul 13 2026
Houthis announce intent to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait simultaneously with Hormuz closure
July 31 drops to 6%6%
On July 13, the Yemeni Houthis declared their intention to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in coordination with Iran's cessation of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a potential escalation in maritime disruptions affecting global trade routes.
Jul 13 2026
Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa airport escalate Yemen conflict
July 31 drops to 7%5%
Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes on Sanaa International Airport on July 13, 2026, escalating hostilities with the Houthis. In response, Houthi officials warned of readiness to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, heightening fears of a blockade and impacting market prices for closure probabilities.
Jun 26 2026
Final data confirms Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open with transit calls above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Data published for the end of the analysis window confirmed that the 7-day moving average of transit calls remained above 10, leading to market resolution favoring no closure.
Jun 18 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls stabilize above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 14%1%
Data showed the 7-day moving average of transit calls stabilized around 14, well above the closure threshold, leading to a market price near 14%, reflecting low probability of closure.
Jun 18 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait traffic remains critically low amid blockade fears
September 30 dips to 13%1%
IMF PortWatch data showed transit calls at a low point, reflecting the effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait due to ongoing blockades and military threats, confirming market expectations of a near-total shutdown by late June.
Jun 18 2026
Transit calls at Bab el-Mandeb Strait reach lowest point but remain above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 14%10%
The 7-day moving average of transit calls dropped to a low of 11, close to the closure threshold, but did not fall to or below 10, keeping the market's closure probability low.
Jun 16 2026
Iran signals Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb if US hits power network
September 30 drops to 17%5%
On June 16, 2026, reports emerged that Iran instructed Yemen's Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks Iran's power network, signaling a potential escalation and raising risk premiums for shipping through the strait. This increased market concern about a possible closure, though no immediate closure occurred.
Jun 10 2026
Announcement of closure risks at Bab el-Mandeb Strait causes market uncertainty
September 30 jumps to 23%5%
News of potential closure risks led to a temporary increase in market uncertainty and price volatility, though actual transit data did not confirm closure.
Jun 10 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls rise, confirming no closure
September 30 jumps to 28%14%
Mid-June data indicated an increase in ship arrivals, reinforcing market confidence that the strait was not effectively closed, with prices rising from 14% to 28%.
Jun 9 2026
US maritime advisory warns of ongoing Houthi threats in Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea
September 30 rises to 28%1%
A US maritime advisory highlighted continued threats by the Houthis to commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding waters, underscoring persistent security risks that contribute to the strait's effective closure and market uncertainty.
Jun 8 2026
Iran declares Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed and Israeli ships legitimate military targets
September 30 dips to 14%2%
Iran publicly declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israeli vessels and labeled them legitimate military targets, intensifying the blockade and signaling a high risk of sustained closure, which contributed to market price declines.
Jun 8 2026
Iran and allies declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israeli ships
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Iran and its allies, including the Houthis, declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait completely closed to Israeli shipping in solidarity with Lebanon and Iran, signaling a significant escalation in maritime blockade efforts affecting a key global trade route.
Jun 8 2026
Houthis renew naval blockade on Israel, close Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli shipping
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a renewed naval blockade targeting Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and declared closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli vessels, intensifying the maritime security crisis and threatening a critical global shipping route.
Jun 7 2026
Iran-backed Houthis declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait completely closed to Israeli ships
September 30 drops to 16%5%
The Houthis announced a complete closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli maritime traffic, escalating the blockade and raising the risk of a full operational shutdown of the strait, which pressured market prices downward.
Jun 5 2026
UNCTAD and IMF PortWatch update on Red Sea shipping disruptions
September 30 drops to 19%9%
New data from UNCTAD and IMF PortWatch highlighted ongoing significant reductions in shipping traffic through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, confirming persistent disruptions but no complete closure.
Jun 5 2026
Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating conflict
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Israel did not halt strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, raising the risk of a dual chokepoint crisis alongside the Strait of Hormuz and further disrupting global oil supplies.
Jun 2 2026
Iran signals expansion of maritime blockade to Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported Tehran and its regional allies considering actions to affect the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a major disruption in global trade and energy supplies.
Jun 1 2026
Iran halts talks with US, vows to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 plunges to 21%29%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran and its allies resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, signaling an escalation in maritime disruption threats. This announcement heightened fears of a broader blockade affecting global trade routes.
Jun 1 2026
Iran-backed groups place closure of Bab el-Mandeb Strait on agenda
September 30 dips to 16%3%
Iran and allied militant groups publicly included the complete closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as part of their strategic objectives, heightening fears of a blockade and contributing to market price drops.
May 26 2026
UKMTO reports explosion near Muscat, Oman, raising regional tensions
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
A tanker reported an external explosion near Muscat, Oman, increasing regional security concerns that could impact shipping through nearby strategic chokepoints including Bab el-Mandeb. This event briefly raised fears of further disruptions.
May 26 2026
Houthis prepare contingency plans to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait with Iran
September 30 jumps to 27%6%
Reports emerged that the Houthis were preparing to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in coordination with Iran if the conflict escalated, signaling potential for a full blockade and increasing market concerns about strait accessibility.
May 24 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip near closure threshold but recover quickly
September 30 drops to 16%5%
Data showed a brief dip in transit calls close to the threshold of 10, causing market concern, but subsequent recovery prevented a closure resolution.
May 23 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip but stay above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 13%7%
Data showed a temporary dip in ship arrivals to near the threshold but still above 10, causing a brief price trough at 13% before rebounding. This indicated continued, though reduced, maritime activity through the strait.
May 20 2026
Regional tensions cause temporary transit fluctuations but no closure at Bab el-Mandeb
September 30 dips to 21%3%
Despite spikes in regional conflict, transit data showed fluctuations but did not fall below the closure threshold, leading to market price volatility but no confirmation of closure.
May 15 2026
U.S. Energy Secretary claims rising traffic at Strait of Hormuz despite data
September 30 rises to 25%4%
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on CNBC that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was rising significantly, but IMF PortWatch data showed only minimal transit. This discrepancy affected market confidence in closure risk assessments.
May 15 2026
Ethiopia and Eritrea agree to ceasefire in border conflict
September 30 plunges to 14%36%
After months of fighting along their shared border, Ethiopia and Eritrea reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing regional tensions and allowing maritime traffic to resume normal levels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
May 6 2026
Reports show Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls remain above closure threshold
September 30 plunges to 24%26%
Initial data releases indicated that the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was above 10, reducing market expectations of an effective closure. This led to a sharp drop in the market price from 50% to 24%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Jul 21 2026
Prediction markets surge on Bab el-Mandeb closure fears amid new blockade
September 30 jumps to 23%10%
On July 21, 2026, prediction markets reflected a surge in odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure following the Houthi naval blockade declaration, as traders assessed the risk to Saudi oil exports and global energy markets, pushing prices for closure outcomes higher.
Jul 21 2026
Houthis blockade raises fears over Bab el-Mandeb trade route security
August 31 jumps to 18%7%
Following the blockade declaration, on July 21, 2026, concerns intensified about the security of navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with increased insurance premiums and shipping reroutes. Saudi-led coalition vowed to protect commercial vessels, but the blockade's impact on trade and oil flows remained significant.
Jul 21 2026
Bab el-Mandeb blockade threatens global oil and trade routes
September 30 rises to 23%4%
On July 21, 2026, reports confirmed the Houthi blockade's potential to widen the Iran war and disrupt global oil supplies and international trade, emphasizing the strait's vital role in connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Arabia and its importance for Saudi oil exports.
Jul 21 2026
Houthi blockade announcement triggers market concerns over Bab el-Mandeb closure
December 31 drops to 33%12%
Following the Houthi declaration of a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping, markets reacted with increased probabilities of Bab el-Mandeb closure, reflecting fears of significant disruption to global trade and energy supplies through this strategic chokepoint.
Jul 20 2026
Houthis declare maritime blockade on Saudi shipping at Bab el-Mandeb Strait
July 31 drops to 5%7%
On July 20, 2026, Yemen's Houthis formally declared a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively closing the strait to Saudi-linked vessels. This blockade threatened to disrupt global oil exports and trade, causing a sharp increase in market concern and price volatility.
Jul 20 2026
US intensifies strikes on Iran amid rising Houthi threats in Bab el-Mandeb region
August 31 jumps to 18%6%
The US conducted multiple strikes on Iranian command centers and missile capabilities, aiming to degrade Iran's ability to threaten maritime traffic, while Houthis prepared attacks near Bab el-Mandeb, increasing regional tensions and market uncertainty.
Jul 20 2026
Houthis declare maritime blockade of Saudi shipping at Bab el-Mandeb Strait
July 31 dips to 5%4%
On July 20, the Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively closing the strait to Saudi shipping and escalating the regional conflict by threatening a key global trade chokepoint.
Jul 17 2026
Iran urges Houthis to prepare for Bab el-Mandeb disruption if US targets energy infrastructure
August 31 rises to 12%1%
Iran reportedly instructed its Houthi allies to prepare to disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Red Sea if the US attacks Iran's power grid or energy infrastructure, raising fears of expanded conflict and increased risk to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait's security.
Jul 16 2026
Russian FM Lavrov warns Bab el-Mandeb closure would harm global oil market
September 30 jumps to 19%6%
On July 16, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly stated that a potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would severely harm international trade and the global oil market, underscoring the strait's strategic importance and increasing geopolitical risk awareness.
Jul 13 2026
Houthis announce intent to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait simultaneously with Hormuz closure
July 31 drops to 6%6%
On July 13, the Yemeni Houthis declared their intention to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in coordination with Iran's cessation of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a potential escalation in maritime disruptions affecting global trade routes.
Jul 13 2026
Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa airport escalate Yemen conflict
July 31 drops to 7%5%
Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes on Sanaa International Airport on July 13, 2026, escalating hostilities with the Houthis. In response, Houthi officials warned of readiness to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, heightening fears of a blockade and impacting market prices for closure probabilities.
Jun 26 2026
Final data confirms Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open with transit calls above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Data published for the end of the analysis window confirmed that the 7-day moving average of transit calls remained above 10, leading to market resolution favoring no closure.
Jun 18 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls stabilize above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 14%1%
Data showed the 7-day moving average of transit calls stabilized around 14, well above the closure threshold, leading to a market price near 14%, reflecting low probability of closure.
Jun 18 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait traffic remains critically low amid blockade fears
September 30 dips to 13%1%
IMF PortWatch data showed transit calls at a low point, reflecting the effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait due to ongoing blockades and military threats, confirming market expectations of a near-total shutdown by late June.
Jun 18 2026
Transit calls at Bab el-Mandeb Strait reach lowest point but remain above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 14%10%
The 7-day moving average of transit calls dropped to a low of 11, close to the closure threshold, but did not fall to or below 10, keeping the market's closure probability low.
Jun 16 2026
Iran signals Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb if US hits power network
September 30 drops to 17%5%
On June 16, 2026, reports emerged that Iran instructed Yemen's Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks Iran's power network, signaling a potential escalation and raising risk premiums for shipping through the strait. This increased market concern about a possible closure, though no immediate closure occurred.
Jun 10 2026
Announcement of closure risks at Bab el-Mandeb Strait causes market uncertainty
September 30 jumps to 23%5%
News of potential closure risks led to a temporary increase in market uncertainty and price volatility, though actual transit data did not confirm closure.
Jun 10 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls rise, confirming no closure
September 30 jumps to 28%14%
Mid-June data indicated an increase in ship arrivals, reinforcing market confidence that the strait was not effectively closed, with prices rising from 14% to 28%.
Jun 9 2026
US maritime advisory warns of ongoing Houthi threats in Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea
September 30 rises to 28%1%
A US maritime advisory highlighted continued threats by the Houthis to commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding waters, underscoring persistent security risks that contribute to the strait's effective closure and market uncertainty.
Jun 8 2026
Iran declares Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed and Israeli ships legitimate military targets
September 30 dips to 14%2%
Iran publicly declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israeli vessels and labeled them legitimate military targets, intensifying the blockade and signaling a high risk of sustained closure, which contributed to market price declines.
Jun 8 2026
Iran and allies declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israeli ships
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Iran and its allies, including the Houthis, declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait completely closed to Israeli shipping in solidarity with Lebanon and Iran, signaling a significant escalation in maritime blockade efforts affecting a key global trade route.
Jun 8 2026
Houthis renew naval blockade on Israel, close Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli shipping
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a renewed naval blockade targeting Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and declared closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli vessels, intensifying the maritime security crisis and threatening a critical global shipping route.
Jun 7 2026
Iran-backed Houthis declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait completely closed to Israeli ships
September 30 drops to 16%5%
The Houthis announced a complete closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli maritime traffic, escalating the blockade and raising the risk of a full operational shutdown of the strait, which pressured market prices downward.
Jun 5 2026
UNCTAD and IMF PortWatch update on Red Sea shipping disruptions
September 30 drops to 19%9%
New data from UNCTAD and IMF PortWatch highlighted ongoing significant reductions in shipping traffic through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, confirming persistent disruptions but no complete closure.
Jun 5 2026
Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating conflict
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Israel did not halt strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, raising the risk of a dual chokepoint crisis alongside the Strait of Hormuz and further disrupting global oil supplies.
Jun 2 2026
Iran signals expansion of maritime blockade to Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported Tehran and its regional allies considering actions to affect the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a major disruption in global trade and energy supplies.
Jun 1 2026
Iran halts talks with US, vows to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 plunges to 21%29%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran and its allies resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, signaling an escalation in maritime disruption threats. This announcement heightened fears of a broader blockade affecting global trade routes.
Jun 1 2026
Iran-backed groups place closure of Bab el-Mandeb Strait on agenda
September 30 dips to 16%3%
Iran and allied militant groups publicly included the complete closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as part of their strategic objectives, heightening fears of a blockade and contributing to market price drops.
May 26 2026
UKMTO reports explosion near Muscat, Oman, raising regional tensions
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
A tanker reported an external explosion near Muscat, Oman, increasing regional security concerns that could impact shipping through nearby strategic chokepoints including Bab el-Mandeb. This event briefly raised fears of further disruptions.
May 26 2026
Houthis prepare contingency plans to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait with Iran
September 30 jumps to 27%6%
Reports emerged that the Houthis were preparing to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in coordination with Iran if the conflict escalated, signaling potential for a full blockade and increasing market concerns about strait accessibility.
May 24 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip near closure threshold but recover quickly
September 30 drops to 16%5%
Data showed a brief dip in transit calls close to the threshold of 10, causing market concern, but subsequent recovery prevented a closure resolution.
May 23 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip but stay above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 13%7%
Data showed a temporary dip in ship arrivals to near the threshold but still above 10, causing a brief price trough at 13% before rebounding. This indicated continued, though reduced, maritime activity through the strait.
May 20 2026
Regional tensions cause temporary transit fluctuations but no closure at Bab el-Mandeb
September 30 dips to 21%3%
Despite spikes in regional conflict, transit data showed fluctuations but did not fall below the closure threshold, leading to market price volatility but no confirmation of closure.
May 15 2026
U.S. Energy Secretary claims rising traffic at Strait of Hormuz despite data
September 30 rises to 25%4%
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on CNBC that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was rising significantly, but IMF PortWatch data showed only minimal transit. This discrepancy affected market confidence in closure risk assessments.
May 15 2026
Ethiopia and Eritrea agree to ceasefire in border conflict
September 30 plunges to 14%36%
After months of fighting along their shared border, Ethiopia and Eritrea reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing regional tensions and allowing maritime traffic to resume normal levels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
May 6 2026
Reports show Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls remain above closure threshold
September 30 plunges to 24%26%
Initial data releases indicated that the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was above 10, reducing market expectations of an effective closure. This led to a sharp drop in the market price from 50% to 24%.
„Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 10 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. Dezember" mit 33%, gefolgt von „30. September" mit 23%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 33¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.
Stand heute hat „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $6.9 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 16, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.
Um auf „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 10 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.
Der aktuelle Favorit für „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" ist „31. Dezember" mit 33%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „30. September" mit 23%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $6.9 million Handelsvolumen bei “Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 33¢ für „31. Dezember" im Markt „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 33% sehen, dass „31. Dezember" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 33¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 67¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Das geplante Enddatum des Marktes „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" ist verstrichen, aber der Markt wurde noch nicht offiziell aufgelöst. Das Enddatum gibt an, wann das zugrunde liegende Ereignis voraussichtlich eintritt oder erkennbar wird. Der Markt bleibt bis zur formellen Auflösung für den Handel geöffnet. Prüfen Sie den Auflösungsstatus und den Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite für Updates.
Der Markt „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?" hat eine aktive Community mit 179 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
Polymarket ist der größte Prognosemarkt der Welt, auf dem Sie informiert bleiben und von Ihrem Wissen über reale Ereignisse profitieren können. Händler kaufen und verkaufen Anteile an Ergebnissen zu Themen von Politik und Wahlen bis hin zu Krypto, Finanzen, Sport, Technologie und Kultur, einschließlich Märkten wie „Bab el-Mandeb-Straße effektiv geschlossen durch...?". Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten wider, die durch finanzielle Überzeugung gestützt werden — oft schneller und genauer als Umfragen, Experten oder traditionelle Erhebungen.
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