AIPAC-endorsed candidates maintain strong positioning in most 2026 primary contests due to established fundraising advantages, organizational support, and alignment with key voter priorities on foreign policy. Trader consensus favoring 2–3 losses through the August 4 window reflects this baseline success rate alongside a handful of competitive races where progressive challengers or local dynamics create measurable risk. Limited recent primary results or candidate announcements have altered the outlook, leaving the distribution anchored to historical patterns of low defeat rates for backed incumbents and nominees. Scheduled August 4 contests represent the final opportunities for any shifts before resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
2–3 69%
4–5 33%
0–1 1.3%
10+ <1%
$15,339 Vol.
$15,339 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
0–1
1%
2–3
69%
4–5
33%
6–7
<1%
8–9
<1%
10+
<1%
2–3 69%
4–5 33%
0–1 1.3%
10+ <1%
$15,339 Vol.
$15,339 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
0–1
$4,341 Vol.
1%
2–3
$4,727 Vol.
69%
4–5
$2,023 Vol.
33%
6–7
$2,280 Vol.
<1%
8–9
$406 Vol.
<1%
10+
$1,563 Vol.
<1%
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AIPAC-endorsed candidates maintain strong positioning in most 2026 primary contests due to established fundraising advantages, organizational support, and alignment with key voter priorities on foreign policy. Trader consensus favoring 2–3 losses through the August 4 window reflects this baseline success rate alongside a handful of competitive races where progressive challengers or local dynamics create measurable risk. Limited recent primary results or candidate announcements have altered the outlook, leaving the distribution anchored to historical patterns of low defeat rates for backed incumbents and nominees. Scheduled August 4 contests represent the final opportunities for any shifts before resolution.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
ভলিউম
$15,339শেষ তারিখ
Aug 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AIPAC-endorsed candidates maintain strong positioning in most 2026 primary contests due to established fundraising advantages, organizational support, and alignment with key voter priorities on foreign policy. Trader consensus favoring 2–3 losses through the August 4 window reflects this baseline success rate alongside a handful of competitive races where progressive challengers or local dynamics create measurable risk. Limited recent primary results or candidate announcements have altered the outlook, leaving the distribution anchored to historical patterns of low defeat rates for backed incumbents and nominees. Scheduled August 4 contests represent the final opportunities for any shifts before resolution.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$15,339শেষ তারিখ
Aug 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...AIPAC-endorsed candidates maintain strong positioning in most 2026 primary contests due to established fundraising advantages, organizational support, and alignment with key voter priorities on foreign policy. Trader consensus favoring 2–3 losses through the August 4 window reflects this baseline success rate alongside a handful of competitive races where progressive challengers or local dynamics create measurable risk. Limited recent primary results or candidate announcements have altered the outlook, leaving the distribution anchored to historical patterns of low defeat rates for backed incumbents and nominees. Scheduled August 4 contests represent the final opportunities for any shifts before resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা