No 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes have registered globally through August 8 in the USGS catalog, leaving only the final day of the August 3–9 window and supporting the 90% market-implied probability for zero events. Global rates average 15–20 such quakes annually, or roughly one every two to three weeks, with short-term quiet intervals common along subduction zones and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters elevating risk. Two M6.3 events on August 5, one deep south of the Kermadec Islands and one near the Philippines, fell below the threshold and align with typical background seismicity rather than signaling an uptick. Limited remaining time and stable monitoring data reinforce trader consensus favoring zero while acknowledging the low but nonzero chance of a late mainshock.