**Low expected turnout in Hawaii’s November 3, 2026 gubernatorial election reflects a low-profile contest in a solidly Democratic state.** Incumbent Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery in a race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited polling and minimal campaign intensity since the August primary. Recent primary participation lagged prior cycles, with officials and analysts citing voter apathy, the absence of a presidential or Senate race, and fallout from political scandals as key dampeners. Historical midterm turnout in the state has trended below 45 percent of eligible voters, and registered-voter totals near 800,000 support trader pricing clustered in the 310K–400K range. Separation could occur from stronger get-out-the-vote efforts, late-breaking issues, or shifts in perceived competitiveness that alter mobilization.