**In the Groulx riding for Quebec’s October 5, 2026, general election, traders see a tight contest between incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA and Finance Minister Eric Girard and Parti Québécois challenger Marie-Claude Sarrazin, with other candidates trailing.** Provincial polling trends have narrowed the CAQ’s historical advantage in this suburban Montreal-area seat, where Girard won comfortably in 2022. Sarrazin’s recent nomination has sharpened the matchup by highlighting opposition critiques on fiscal management and government performance. Models such as 338Canada still assign Girard the edge on the basis of incumbency and local results, yet the broader provincial environment—marked by fragmented opposition support and shifting voter sentiment—keeps implied probabilities close. Upcoming debates and final campaign developments through early October could widen or close the gap, as could any late shifts in turnout among nationalist or suburban voters. The resolution will follow official Élections Québec results.