Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place the AfD at 17–19% and the Greens at 16%, creating a consistent though narrow edge for the AfD that underpins the 66.5% market probability it will finish ahead. AfD support has risen steadily since spring amid broader national gains on immigration and economic concerns, with the party briefly topping Berlin surveys in July after the CDU replaced its candidate. The Greens have remained largely stable near their 2023 result but show no comparable upward momentum. Late-August surveys from Forsa and INSA continue to reflect this positioning, with no major intervening events shifting the relative standings. Trader consensus therefore tracks the empirical polling gap and the limited time remaining for either party to reverse it.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAfD
66% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
66% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place the AfD at 17–19% and the Greens at 16%, creating a consistent though narrow edge for the AfD that underpins the 66.5% market probability it will finish ahead. AfD support has risen steadily since spring amid broader national gains on immigration and economic concerns, with the party briefly topping Berlin surveys in July after the CDU replaced its candidate. The Greens have remained largely stable near their 2023 result but show no comparable upward momentum. Late-August surveys from Forsa and INSA continue to reflect this positioning, with no major intervening events shifting the relative standings. Trader consensus therefore tracks the empirical polling gap and the limited time remaining for either party to reverse it.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,378শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place the AfD at 17–19% and the Greens at 16%, creating a consistent though narrow edge for the AfD that underpins the 66.5% market probability it will finish ahead. AfD support has risen steadily since spring amid broader national gains on immigration and economic concerns, with the party briefly topping Berlin surveys in July after the CDU replaced its candidate. The Greens have remained largely stable near their 2023 result but show no comparable upward momentum. Late-August surveys from Forsa and INSA continue to reflect this positioning, with no major intervening events shifting the relative standings. Trader consensus therefore tracks the empirical polling gap and the limited time remaining for either party to reverse it.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ভলিউম
$1,378শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place the AfD at 17–19% and the Greens at 16%, creating a consistent though narrow edge for the AfD that underpins the 66.5% market probability it will finish ahead. AfD support has risen steadily since spring amid broader national gains on immigration and economic concerns, with the party briefly topping Berlin surveys in July after the CDU replaced its candidate. The Greens have remained largely stable near their 2023 result but show no comparable upward momentum. Late-August surveys from Forsa and INSA continue to reflect this positioning, with no major intervening events shifting the relative standings. Trader consensus therefore tracks the empirical polling gap and the limited time remaining for either party to reverse it.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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