Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey of likely voters, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6–9 points amid President Trump’s low approval ratings and widespread voter frustration with cost-of-living pressures and economic management. This environment aligns with historical midterm patterns in which the president’s party typically loses ground, supporting trader pricing that favors Democratic popular-vote margins in the 6–12 point range while assigning substantial probability to “Other” outcomes. Forecasters project Democrats could gain 20–30 House seats, though redistricting effects, turnout dynamics, and late-cycle shifts in key battlegrounds remain variables that could alter the final national margin.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 6-8% 22%
Democrats 10-12% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 11%
$133,598 Vol.
$133,598 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
20%
Democrats 8-10%
28%
Democrats 6-8%
22%
Democrats 4-6%
11%
Democrats 2-4%
7%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
3%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
1%
Democrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 6-8% 22%
Democrats 10-12% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 11%
$133,598 Vol.
$133,598 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,556 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$3,412 Vol.
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,597 Vol.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$8,975 Vol.
20%
Democrats 8-10%
$14,498 Vol.
28%
Democrats 6-8%
$15,599 Vol.
22%
Democrats 4-6%
$7,010 Vol.
11%
Democrats 2-4%
$15,636 Vol.
7%
Democrats 0-2%
$16,265 Vol.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,931 Vol.
3%
Republicans 2-4%
$30,409 Vol.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey of likely voters, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6–9 points amid President Trump’s low approval ratings and widespread voter frustration with cost-of-living pressures and economic management. This environment aligns with historical midterm patterns in which the president’s party typically loses ground, supporting trader pricing that favors Democratic popular-vote margins in the 6–12 point range while assigning substantial probability to “Other” outcomes. Forecasters project Democrats could gain 20–30 House seats, though redistricting effects, turnout dynamics, and late-cycle shifts in key battlegrounds remain variables that could alter the final national margin.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$133,598শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey of likely voters, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6–9 points amid President Trump’s low approval ratings and widespread voter frustration with cost-of-living pressures and economic management. This environment aligns with historical midterm patterns in which the president’s party typically loses ground, supporting trader pricing that favors Democratic popular-vote margins in the 6–12 point range while assigning substantial probability to “Other” outcomes. Forecasters project Democrats could gain 20–30 House seats, though redistricting effects, turnout dynamics, and late-cycle shifts in key battlegrounds remain variables that could alter the final national margin.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
ভলিউম
$133,598শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey of likely voters, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6–9 points amid President Trump’s low approval ratings and widespread voter frustration with cost-of-living pressures and economic management. This environment aligns with historical midterm patterns in which the president’s party typically loses ground, supporting trader pricing that favors Democratic popular-vote margins in the 6–12 point range while assigning substantial probability to “Other” outcomes. Forecasters project Democrats could gain 20–30 House seats, though redistricting effects, turnout dynamics, and late-cycle shifts in key battlegrounds remain variables that could alter the final national margin.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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